On Thursday, spot gold fluctuated around the $440 per ounce level. The nearly 1% decline yesterday really unsettled many people. Honestly, the reason for this drop is quite simple—on one side, there were significant gains earlier, and large investors took the opportunity to lock in profits; on the other side, US economic data exceeded expectations, reducing market risk aversion, and gold prices responded by pulling back from $4500 per ounce.

But does this signal a trend reversal? Not necessarily. From a fundamental perspective, the factors supporting gold prices remain solid. The upcoming US initial jobless claims and December non-farm payroll reports are particularly critical—if employment data weakens, gold prices are likely to rise again. Additionally, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to start a rate-cut cycle this year, and a low-interest-rate environment will naturally enhance gold’s appeal as a safe haven.

The technical story is also quite interesting. Gold prices surged at the beginning of this week, reaching a new high of $4500 yesterday, then turned downward, closing with a bearish candle. However, they found support at 4423 (where the 5-day and 7-day moving averages converge), and rebounded back near 4460 by the end of the session—this pattern looks more like a shakeout by the main players, pushing out retail traders following the trend. The RSI remains above 50, and the price is between the middle and upper bands of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a consolidation pattern.

Today’s key level to watch is the 4478 threshold. If the price holds above this level, it may continue to push toward 4500, with a breakout targeting the 4530 to 4546 range. Conversely, if it cannot hold above 4478, be prepared for further pullback, first supporting at 4430, then below that at 4400.

For long positions, consider entering between 4420 and 4430, with a stop-loss at 4410, targeting 4500 to 4530. For short positions, consider entering between 4480 and 4490, with a stop-loss at 4500, aiming for 4420 to 4400. Also, keep in mind key support levels at 4435, 4420, and 4400, and resistance levels at 4478, 4492, and 4518. Ultimately, the key is: avoid blindly chasing high and low; let the data and technical analysis guide your decisions.