Last night, the US released the ADP employment data showing a mild recovery. Behind this seemingly ordinary economic data, there are significant implications for the recent crypto market.

From a liquidity expectation perspective, this data directly prompted the market to adjust the Federal Reserve's rate cut timetable. According to real-time updates from the "Federal Reserve Watch" tool, the probability of a rate cut in January plummeted from 17.7% the previous trading day to 11.1%, while the Polymarket market forecast is even more aggressive — the rate cut probability has dropped to 8%. It appears to be better-than-expected data, but what is the essence? The market's "short-term easing" illusion has been completely shattered.

The true meaning of this event lies in the reversal of expectations. Previously, the market widely bet that the Fed would release liquidity early, but this ADP data is like a cold shower — the US dollar gained short-term support, and BTC denominated in USD naturally faces pressure. After all, liquidity is the real fuel for this round of market movement. When expectations tighten, capital conditions will naturally adjust.

On the technical side, the 4-hour chart has already given a clear signal. The MACD indicator has formed a death cross at high levels, and key support levels are under test. This is not an isolated technical phenomenon but a true reflection of fundamental expectation changes on the chart. When a macro liquidity turning point occurs, technicals tend to follow quickly.

Overall, the core driver of this shock is not the data itself but the market’s re-pricing of the future liquidity environment. Next, close attention should be paid to whether key supports can hold, as this will determine whether the market experiences a short-term correction or a larger retracement.