#比特币价格波动 BTC Q4 decline exceeds 22%, which is indeed one of the worst-performing Q4s since 2018. After reviewing on-chain data and market reactions, the current rebound mainly stems from technical corrections rather than new capital inflows—this is the key distinction.

The support level of $86,000 has been tested repeatedly over the past 5 weeks, indicating genuine disagreement in the market at this level. More importantly, the shift in community sentiment is worth noting; English-speaking traders are already clearly bearish, with disappointment mounting. From a trading perspective, the oscillation range between $93,000 and $88,000 remains the core short-term battleground.

Seasonal factors may not help much this time. Although history shows Q4 is usually strong, tightening liquidity combined with macro uncertainties often lead to significant pullbacks at year-end. The frequent retracement patterns during US stock trading hours have already validated this.

Short-term price volatility risks remain high. It is recommended to closely monitor whether whales are making substantial positions at these key levels and to track the real-time flow of institutional funds—these are the crucial signals to determine whether the rebound can turn into a trend.