#MSCI未排除数字资产财库企业纳入范围 Gold midday observation: How long can the dollar rebound last? It all depends on the Fed's stance.

This morning, I shorted around 4470, and by the midday, it dropped to 4433, earning 36 points. The recent decline was mainly driven by three forces: traders taking profits, passive selling pressure from index rebalancing, and the recent rebound of the US dollar index.

But look, the expectation of a rate cut by the Fed in March is still heating up, and real interest rates are falling, which directly lowers the cost of holding gold. Plus, given the geopolitical uncertainties, central banks worldwide are continuously buying gold, so the market views this correction as a good opportunity to accumulate on dips.

Possible scenarios moving forward:

If the non-farm payrolls data significantly underperform expectations, the rate cut expectation will definitely intensify, putting pressure on the dollar to retreat, and gold prices can quickly recover lost ground. If the non-farm data roughly meets expectations, then bulls and bears will fight closely, and gold is likely to fluctuate between 4400 and 4500, waiting for CPI and Fed decisions to give a clear signal. The worst case is if non-farm payrolls exceed expectations strongly, which will dampen the rate cut expectations, causing the dollar to surge, and gold may test the critical support at 4350.

$XAU $PEPE $YB

In terms of trading strategy, consider gradually adding long positions in the 4400-4420 range with small lots, with a stop loss below 4380. Watch for resistance at 4450; if it breaks and stabilizes, hold on. If it cannot break through, consider entering short positions.