Ethereum's market tonight is like a roller coaster—sharp fluctuations reveal the fragility of the entire market. The 3200 level is not just a number on the chart; it relates to the technical bottom line, market sentiment, and the true intentions of on-chain large holders.

Currently, three things warrant close attention:

First, the small moves of on-chain large holders. Data shows that many whales are repeatedly placing orders between 3150 and 3250, seemingly accumulating at lows and attempting to support the price. Second, the shadow of policy. Although the Supreme Court's tariff ruling does not directly target the crypto market, if it triggers panic in risk assets, Ethereum, as the most actively traded asset, will inevitably be the first to be affected. Third, the powder keg in the derivatives market. The total ETH contract holdings across the network remain high, and any unilateral move could trigger chain reactions of liquidations, leading to a "buy the dip" scenario.

The lesson from history is clear: when macro black swans meet high leverage structures, the market often experiences a liquidity stampede. The current advice is to watch whether the 3200 support can hold, and also observe the reaction of the US stock market (especially the Nasdaq)—if the Nasdaq plunges, Ethereum may also test the 3100 support level.

The real key is not in the candlestick itself, but whether the market can digest these policy uncertainties. Maintaining positions now requires both reverence for volatility and caution against excessive emotional swings.