In the past two trading days (from January 7 to noon on January 8, UTC+8), Bitcoin has been highly volatile. It surged from a low of $91,000 to a high of $94,420, then quickly retreated, resembling a roller coaster ride — initially rising above $94,000 to encounter strong resistance, followed by a 3% drop, leading to an intense battle between bulls and bears.

Specifically, on January 7, the price reached a high of $94,420 but closed around $93,000. The chain reaction caused by this failed attempt to break higher was significant, with total liquidations reaching $440 million, mainly from long positions' stop-loss orders near support levels. Moving into January 8, the market still showed no clear signs of recovery, with a top at only $93,800, then trending downward, currently hovering around $91,500, with short-term selling pressure clearly intensifying.

From a technical perspective, key support and resistance levels are quite clear: the $94,000–$94,500 range is a tough barrier, with strong support below at $91,000–$91,500, and $90,000 as the last line of defense. The daily MACD remains above zero, indicating that the long-term bullish trend has not been broken, but on the 2-hour short-term chart, bearish signals are strengthening, with the price even breaking below short-term moving averages. The 120-day moving average (around $90,750) has become a critical support level recently.

Market liquidity shows interesting signs — although ETF inflows are still ongoing, the volume of active selling in the short term has hit a new high since December 23, indicating many traders are taking profits. From an institutional perspective, Bernstein remains steadfast in their $150,000 target for 2026, believing $80,000 is the bottom, with long-term confidence intact. However, leverage and volatility are currently low, and the market has not entered a high-emotion phase; overall, the structure remains conservative.

The short-term trading strategy is quite clear: buy on dips near support at $91,000–$91,500, and consider reducing positions or taking profits near resistance at $94,000–$94,500. Strict stop-losses are essential, avoid greed, manage positions carefully, and most importantly, refrain from chasing rallies or panic selling.

Next, two key events to watch are: first, tonight’s US non-farm payroll data release, which will directly influence expectations for rate cuts and the direction of risk assets; second, whether ETF capital flows can maintain their net inflow momentum, which will determine the short-term trend. If support at $91,000 is effectively broken, the market could further decline to the $89,000–$90,000 range.