The market has fallen 30%, but institutions are quietly accumulating. This wave of volatility that you don't understand is actually the beginning of a new pattern.

At 3 a.m., I received a message from Lao Li—this is his third liquidation this year. I didn't send him a comforting emoji, I just replied: "Do you know why you keep missing out on the daily moves? Because you're playing by the rules of the last cycle."

Data speaks for itself. In 2025, Bitcoin's annual decline is -5.4%, marking one of the rarest "worst performances" in history. But the strange thing is—BTC ETF net inflows reached $25 billion, and institutional holdings soared to 24%. Retail investors are panic-selling, but BlackRock, Fidelity, and sovereign funds are quietly accumulating.

Yes, the underlying logic of the market has been completely rewritten.

**Retail investors are being pushed out, institutions are taking over pricing power**

That belief in the "Four-Year Halving Cycle" in crypto? It’s bankrupt by 2025.

Bitcoin has been consolidating between $87,000 and $126,000 all year, with no sharp rises or falls, and no scenes of retail frenzy. Looking at the data: active retail addresses have decreased by 66%, small transaction volumes have shrunk by over 60%. Meanwhile, large transactions over a million dollars have increased by 59.26%.

What does this shift indicate? It’s simple—market discourse is changing hands.

Retail investors like Lao Li are still chasing gains and losses daily, using candlestick charts to predict the next move. But institutional investors don’t care about tomorrow’s ups and downs; they look at long cycles of three or five years. Retail is operating on second-level trades, while institutions are making strategic allocations. Two worlds, two completely different approaches.

**Why are institutions accumulating at lows**

The key is—they’re not watching the price, but liquidity.

When retail investors panic and sell off, institutions see assets that are severely undervalued. Bitcoin has retraced from its all-time high, but continuous ETF net inflows mean what? It indicates that huge institutional funds believe the current price is an excellent entry point. This isn’t gambling; it’s long-term positioning based on future prospects.

Moreover, the takeover by institutions is not just about numbers; it’s a change in market structure. When ownership shifts from retail to institutions, volatility tends to decrease, but pricing becomes more rational. That’s why you feel the market is "slow," but in reality, it’s becoming more mature.

**In the new cycle, trend followers will inevitably be eliminated**

If you’re still using retail thinking—watching candlesticks, chasing hot spots, going all-in, getting liquidated—2026 will be even harder. Because the market has upgraded, and pricing power now lies with deep-pocketed institutions.

Can retail investors make money? Yes. But the premise is to change your mindset—not chasing short-term volatility, but understanding long-term trends; not gambling on ups and downs, but allocating assets with solid fundamentals.

Market rules have been rewritten. Adapt to them, or be eliminated. This is the most real lesson of 2025.