The market collectively held its breath.

Tonight at 21:15, the US December ADP employment data will be released. Analysts' predictions vary widely, but there is a consensus—if the actual data deviates from expectations by more than 20,000, the crypto market will definitely experience a wave of intense volatility.

After years in this industry, I increasingly believe in one rule: when everyone is betting in the same direction, it often signals a market turning point. This time is no exception.

**What is the current situation?**

The market generally expects an increase of 47,000 jobs in December, which is much better than November's -32,000. Sounds good, but the problem is that employment data has become the last lifeline for Federal Reserve policy. The probability of a rate cut in January has fallen below 20%—in other words, employment data is the final weather vane.

**Why focus on this data?**

ADP employment data reflects the true state of employment in the US private sector. Compared to the official non-farm payrolls, it updates more quickly, and market participants see it as an early window into the labor market.

The expected 47,000 sounds optimistic, but I have to pour cold water on that: a single month's data shift cannot fundamentally change the big picture—that the US labor market is in recession. The Fed isn't looking at whether one month shows improvement, but at the trend. And based on the past year's data, the trend is clearly weakening.

Especially after 2025, the monthly decline in ADP data has become the norm. Since May, aside from some months of rebound, the overall trend has been downward. This persistent softness is enough to keep Fed policymakers awake at night.

**What is the market betting on?**

In simple terms, the current game is: will the ADP data be much better than expected? Or much worse?

If the data significantly exceeds expectations, indicating a sudden strengthening of the labor market, the rationale for a Fed rate cut weakens, which will dampen bullish enthusiasm in crypto markets. But if the data falls short or is significantly below expectations, it signals economic weakness, and the market will re-bet on the Fed's rescue policies.

How big are the disagreements among analysts? That’s the key issue. Some believe it will beat expectations, others think it will be worse. This divergence makes tonight’s data release a true "black swan" moment.

**What does this mean for the crypto market?**

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have recently been highly correlated with Fed policy expectations. Low interest rates and easing policies tend to boost risk asset valuations, and vice versa.

When market expectations are highly aligned, waiting for a specific data point, it often means all good or bad news has already been priced in. Once the actual data exceeds expectations, reactions can be very intense—liquidity can dry up quickly, and prices can swing rapidly.

So tonight is not just about a data release; it’s a critical point for directional decision-making. It may take several hours for the market to fully digest this data and reprice the entire policy expectation chain.

Crypto market participants, get ready. This will indeed be a sleepless night.