#比特币价格波动 I just saw VanEck's report and suddenly realized that my understanding of mining is too superficial😅
It mentions that the recent Bitcoin network hash rate has dropped by 4%, the largest decline since April, and they say this is actually a bullish signal?? Historical data shows that within 90 days after a hash rate decline, the probability of Bitcoin positive returns can reach 65%, while during hash rate growth, it's only 54%.
I read it several times before I understood— a decline in hash rate means some miners are quitting because they can't make money, which is called "miner capitulation." Sounds pretty hopeless, right? But it actually indicates that weaker operators are leaving the market, and the market is self-correcting? It feels a bit like clearing out uncertain chips.
What surprised me most is that if the hash rate compression lasts longer, the probability of positive returns is even higher. This logic seems a bit counterintuitive, but thinking about it, it makes sense—those who stick around are true believers.
But I'm still a bit confused—does this mean I can boldly buy now? Or is it just a reference signal? Can experienced people explain it? 🤔
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
#比特币价格波动 I just saw VanEck's report and suddenly realized that my understanding of mining is too superficial😅
It mentions that the recent Bitcoin network hash rate has dropped by 4%, the largest decline since April, and they say this is actually a bullish signal?? Historical data shows that within 90 days after a hash rate decline, the probability of Bitcoin positive returns can reach 65%, while during hash rate growth, it's only 54%.
I read it several times before I understood— a decline in hash rate means some miners are quitting because they can't make money, which is called "miner capitulation." Sounds pretty hopeless, right? But it actually indicates that weaker operators are leaving the market, and the market is self-correcting? It feels a bit like clearing out uncertain chips.
What surprised me most is that if the hash rate compression lasts longer, the probability of positive returns is even higher. This logic seems a bit counterintuitive, but thinking about it, it makes sense—those who stick around are true believers.
But I'm still a bit confused—does this mean I can boldly buy now? Or is it just a reference signal? Can experienced people explain it? 🤔