The financing cutoff behind the index "probation": How MSCI's freeze clause ends Strategy's "infinite accumulation" cycle

According to Gate Market Data, as of January 8, 2026, the current price of Bitcoin is around $91,026.1, while the stock price of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has risen over 5% following the MSCI decision announcement. This round of gains was triggered by a notice from global index provider MSCI on January 6: deciding to temporarily refrain from removing “Digital Asset Treasury Companies” (DATCOs) from its global investable market indices.

The Double-Edged Nature of the Decision

MSCI’s decision exhibits clear dual characteristics. On one hand, companies like Strategy with digital asset holdings exceeding 50% of total assets avoided the fate of being forcibly removed from major benchmark indices. This decision alleviated the market’s primary concern of “forced selling” risk. Analysts previously warned that if MSCI proceeded with the removal plan, it could lead to outflows of up to $2.8 billion from Strategy.

On the other hand, MSCI embedded a critical restriction in the announcement: “No implementation of increases in the number of securities, foreign inclusion factors, or domestic inclusion factors for these securities.” This means that even if Strategy issues additional shares in the future, its weight in the MSCI index will not be adjusted accordingly, and passive funds tracking the index will not automatically purchase the newly issued shares.

The Broken Financing Flywheel

This freeze policy directly impacts the core mechanism of Strategy’s long-term reliance on financing and increasing holdings. Over the past few years, the company has continuously expanded its Bitcoin holdings through a “financing flywheel”: stock price rises → issuance of new shares for financing → financing funds used to buy Bitcoin → Bitcoin appreciation drives stock price higher.

In 2025, Strategy raised over $15 billion through share issuance to actively accumulate Bitcoin. When the company issues new shares, index providers update their share counts, and passive funds tracking the index are forced to buy the proportionate amount of new shares, creating a “mechanical buying demand.” MSCI’s freeze policy cuts off this critical link. Now, even if Strategy issues new shares, passive funds are not required to follow suit, and the company must rely entirely on active funds, hedge funds, and retail investors to absorb the new stock.

This shift changes the rules of capital game. An analysis from a research firm shows that under the old mechanism, if a company issued 20 million shares, with 10% held by passive funds, approximately 2 million shares would be automatically purchased by index funds. At $300 per share, this equates to a $600 million automatic buying pressure. Under the new rules, this automatic demand will no longer exist.

Bitcoin Holdings and Market Performance

Strategy recently disclosed holding over $60 billion worth of Bitcoin, accounting for about 99% of its total assets. According to BitcoinTreasuries.net data, its total holdings reach 672,497 BTC, with an average cost of $74,997. Despite Bitcoin’s relatively resilient price, Strategy’s market value plummeted by about 66% in the second half of 2025. Its stock price has fallen nearly 60% from its peak. After the MSCI decision was announced on January 6, Strategy’s stock price rose over 6% in after-hours trading, reflecting market optimism about the elimination of “forced selling” risk.

However, MSCI’s decision still leaves uncertainties for the future. The company explicitly stated it will initiate broader consultations to explore how to treat non-operating companies. This indicates that the index status of DATCOs has not been finally resolved.

Structural Impact on Investors

For investors, MSCI’s decision will bring several structural changes. Passive index investment strategies will need adjustment. ETFs and funds tracking MSCI indices no longer need to worry about large rebalancing due to the removal of DATCOs, but they also lose the automatic allocation benefits from these companies’ issuance.

Active investment decision-making will gain importance. Since passive funds will no longer automatically participate in issuance, active investors will play a more critical role in deciding whether to support financing plans of companies like Strategy. Companies will need to provide more compelling fundamentals and growth prospects to attract capital.

Bitcoin exposure pathways will diverge. Investors seeking Bitcoin exposure are shifting from corporate stocks to specialized financial products. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has become a mature asset class, attracting significant institutional capital.

These ETFs directly compete with companies like Strategy, but the former do not carry operational risks or premium volatility. If Strategy’s ability to raise cheap capital is limited, large allocators might shift funds from corporate stocks to spot ETFs.

Strategic Transformation Under the New Financing Environment

In response to changing financing conditions, Strategy may need to adjust its Bitcoin accumulation strategy. The company might rely more on debt financing rather than equity issuance to raise funds. Although this could increase leverage and risk, it avoids dilution and the non-participation of passive funds. The company may also strengthen its traditional software business profitability to generate more organic cash flow for Bitcoin purchases. This requires rebalancing resource allocation, shifting some focus from pure Bitcoin accumulation to core business development.

Meanwhile, Strategy needs to communicate its long-term vision and Bitcoin strategy more proactively to active investors to maintain stock price and financing capacity in the absence of passive automatic support.

MSCI’s decision also prompts the market to evaluate the fundamentals of DATCOs more strictly. In the future, these companies’ valuations may more closely reflect the net asset value of their Bitcoin holdings rather than the previously high premiums.

As of January 8, 2026, Gate Market Data shows Bitcoin prices around $91,026.1, while Strategy continues to hold over 600,000 BTC. Facing the transformation of financing mechanisms, Strategy is adjusting its strategic focus, and MSCI’s decision also indicates that the path of integrating traditional index investing with the digital asset economy requires new rules and balance.