#密码资产动态追踪 【Clear short signal, don't chase the rebound】

Everyone, I'll be direct— the 1-hour chart's trend is already obvious.

Technical aspects:
Candlesticks are repeatedly testing the BOLL lower band (90455), and after the MA7 and MA30 form a death cross, they continue to diverge downward, indicating a clear bearish arrangement. The MACD lines are opening below the zero axis, with the green histogram shrinking but momentum not yet reversing. Even during a rebound, caution is advised—it's very likely just a trap to lure in buyers.

On-chain data:
Net inflow into exchanges has increased over the past 24 hours, indicating selling pressure is still building. Large transactions moving to exchanges are increasing, and these whale-type holders might be quietly selling off. Combining these signals, we're still far from the bottom.

Looking at macro:
Expectations of liquidity tightening are heating up, and risk assets have faced considerable pressure recently. Institutional investors' holdings have decreased for three consecutive days, showing smart money is indeed fleeing.

My view:
I mentioned last week in the community that we should reduce positions and stay defensive. Now that the chart has formed this pattern, I am even more convinced that the bottom hasn't been reached. Don't be fooled by small rebounds—there are many opportunities in the crypto space, but your capital is only one share.

How to operate in trading:
First, hold the key level at 90000. If it breaks, there's a high probability that the price will test the 88500 to 94760 range below. If you're trading with the trend, wait for the MACD golden cross and a volume-increasing bullish candle before considering building a position. No need to rush.

Remember the most important point: the trend is your friend. Going against the trend to bottom fish is a gambler's game. Keep a close eye on market movements, use the performance of $BTC and other mainstream coins to calibrate your judgment, and ultimately, the winners are often those who patiently wait for signals.