From the market perspective, ETH is currently at a delicate moment.

**Technical analysis is quite interesting**

The BOLL bands have compressed to an absurd degree—middle band at 3168, with only 104 points between the upper and lower bands (3220 to 3116), and the price is oscillating near the middle band. Such compression often signals an impending major move, with the direction hidden in the next few candlesticks. The current closing price is 3155.73. If volume can pick up and hold above the middle band, the 3220 level becomes the first target.

The MACD is also intriguing. DIF remains at -18.03, and DEA is negative at -19.24, but the MACD histogram has already turned positive (2.41), indicating that the bearish momentum is clearly waning. If a golden cross forms, a short-term rebound on the hourly chart can be confirmed.

What about trading volume? It’s only 15,800 now, far below the 5-day average volume of 82,000. What is the market waiting for? Usually, after low-volume consolidation, a volume breakout follows, so we need to keep a close eye on the main players’ movements.

**On-chain data begins to speak**

Exchange ETH reserves have been continuously decreasing recently, indicating smart money is accumulating on dips. Large wallet addresses holding over 10,000 ETH have been increasing their holdings significantly over the past week, clearly showing whale accumulation signals. On-chain Gas fees remain low, suggesting no panic selling pressure at the moment, and overall activity remains relatively stable.

**Macro environment is brewing change**

The Fed’s talk of rate cuts is growing louder, risk asset sentiment is warming, and the overall crypto market is receiving macro support. The countdown to Ethereum’s Dencun upgrade is underway, and the expectation of lower fees in Layer2 ecosystems could become the next explosive point. Capital flows into Bitcoin ETFs have been consistently positive, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate has already touched a key support zone, increasing the likelihood of a rebound.

**Action plan**

In the short term, the strategy is to buy on dips. Hold above the BOLL lower band at 3116 and avoid breaking below it, build positions gradually, and set stop-loss at 3080.

If volume surges and pushes above 3220, add more long positions, aiming first for 3300, then 3350.

In terms of risk management, if the price falls below 3100 and MACD forms a death cross again, be alert for a possible correction down to the 3050 support level.

Ultimately, the market rewards those traders with patience and logic. This is not gambling; it’s a game of probabilities and information—right now, the win rate for bulls is gradually increasing.