2026-01-08 06:22:19

I want to discuss a question with everyone: How did Bitcoin shift from a bull market to a bear market?

Instead of obsessing over various news events, it's better to look at the relationship between volume and price. In simple terms—buying pressure can no longer sustain itself; every time there’s selling pressure, it can’t be absorbed.

This is clearly visible on the monthly chart. From September 2023 to March 2024, September 2024 to January 2025, and April 2025 to July 2025, these three upward trends show decreasing trading volume each time. This itself is a warning signal: fewer participants are involved, and the capital scale is shrinking. The divergence between volume and price has occurred twice, indicating that the enthusiasm for buying has significantly waned in later stages. The period from April 2025 to July 2025 was already at the end of its strength.

A more straightforward signal is: within the trend from April 2025 to July 2025, the divergence between volume and price is very obvious. In other words, new highs are constantly being made, but trading volume is decreasing. What does this mean? Genuine strong buying pressure has become very hard to find.

After July, the market started to struggle, unable to go higher or lower, and selling pressure began to take the lead. Bitcoin attempted three times to break through 120,000 but failed to hold, each time being pushed back down. During this process, the main players kept offloading, while buying attempts tried to absorb the sell-off but couldn’t keep up. It’s clear that the scale of participation and willingness to buy have both declined.

Therefore, by the fourth quarter, Bitcoin’s upward momentum has been exhausted. The transition from bull to bear was already evident on the charts; it just hadn’t been triggered yet. The subsequent events (such as certain institutional adjustments) were merely sparks igniting a powder keg that was already full. Changing the event might lead to similar results; it’s not the cause, just the fuse.

BTC-0,68%

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AirdropHunter007

· 01-11 06:22

Is the divergence between price and volume so obvious that you haven't noticed? To put it simply, big players are exiting while retail investors are still holding the bag.

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TheMemefather

· 01-10 15:19

The divergence between price and volume is indeed very clear, but to be honest, I am more concerned about who is dumping later... The big players' pace of selling is too steady. --- Three times at 120,000 and still haven't stabilized? Now that's interesting, it feels like a game of hot potato with the market maker. --- Instead of paying attention to news events, it's better to see what the major holders are doing lately; money talks. --- Trading volume is weakening each time; what does this indicate? Either no one is playing anymore, or the big players are secretly offloading at high levels. --- The bull turning into a bear was already written on the monthly chart; most people are still fantasizing about that nonexistent V-shaped rebound. --- The phrase "at the end of a strong bow" is perfect; it feels like the price is now just a "dead cat bounce" trying to prolong its life. --- So, don't be blinded by various positive news; the market chart is the real truth. Can volume and price deceive us?

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PumpingCroissant

· 01-08 06:49

The signal of declining volume is indeed very bleak. Watching each attempt become weaker is really uncomfortable. It's a lost cause; every surge to the top is just on paper. Rather than waiting for an event to trigger, it's better to recognize the market situation early and speak frankly. This wave isn't as strong as I imagined. The divergence between volume and price clearly indicates that funds are fleeing rather than entering. When those few times hit 120,000, I already felt something was off. A market at the end of its strength is the most dangerous. It looks like it's still rising, but it should have been sold already.

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PensionDestroyer

· 01-08 06:46

The divergence between price and volume is a signal that really can't be ignored. The成交量 in the first three waves of the market each time was weaker than the last, what does that mean? It means there's no one left. It was obvious long ago—new highs piling up but成交量 being cut back. Isn't this just the main force dumping? Retail investors can't even catch up. The three attempts to突破 120,000 were smashed back down. Just looking at it, you can tell the buying momentum is almost gone. With such a small资金规模, how can it continue to rise? To put it simply, the事件 was just the fuse. The market has been rotten for a long time; it will blow up sooner or later.

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SnapshotDayLaborer

· 01-08 06:41

Whenever volume-price divergence occurs, it should raise suspicion; it is indeed a signal that the main force is quietly pulling out. I've felt something was off for a while now, with trading volume getting weaker each time, which anyone can see. Exactly, those attempts to hit 120,000 were just false highs and can't hold up. The event was just the fuse; the problem was already buried in the market, and the genuine buying power is simply unable to keep up. This analysis has covered everything I wanted to say—that funds are gradually withdrawing and will eventually shift.

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BrokeBeans

· 01-08 06:36

The divergence between price and volume has been obvious for a while now, and the buying pressure really can't hold up... Every rebound feels like it's made of paper.

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