Recently, I've been focusing on the 1-hour trend of BTC, and several phenomena are worth noting.

On the technical side, the Bollinger Bands have broken downward, and the moving average system shows a clear bearish alignment, with both MA and EMA failing to provide any support signals. More intuitively, the MACD—below the zero line—the green bars are continuously expanding, indicating that the downward momentum is still accumulating and shows no signs of weakening.

On-chain data also sends an early warning. I have observed some large wallets gradually reducing their holdings. Although the amounts are not large per transaction, this rhythm often reflects a cautious attitude among institutional investors. Considering the recent resurgence of regulatory voices, the market's risk appetite is indeed declining.

Overall, it is highly likely that BTC will seek lower support levels in the short term, and this level may need to fall further. For those looking to buy the dip, the risk-reward ratio of entering now is not ideal.

What is the most important thing when trading? It's not about predicting with 100% accuracy, but about maintaining the rhythm amid uncertainty. The more chaotic the signals from the market, the more careful you should be with your position sizing. I have adjusted my portfolio according to this logic and am continuously monitoring on-chain data and market changes.

There is a classic saying—when you don't understand, it's better to miss the opportunity than to make a wrong decision. Protecting your principal is the key to the story that follows.