2026-01-08 06:27:57

Recently browsing financial news, the gold market has filled the entire screen. From an initial price of $3,000 per ounce at the beginning of the year to $4,600, the annual increase is nearly 70%, making it the most aggressive rally since the 1979 oil crisis. Morgan Stanley predicts that by the end of 2026, gold prices could reach $4,800, while JPMorgan has even set a target of $6,000.

But what I want to discuss this time is not just gold itself—gold is more like a signal light. The real story is that the world is experiencing a trust crisis in the monetary system, which many traditional investors have not yet fully recognized. Against this backdrop, the revaluation of digital scarce assets may just be the beginning.

On the surface, the rise in gold prices is due to central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of interest rate cuts stacking up, but to truly understand this rally, we need to look deeper.

Central bank gold purchases are no longer short-term actions; they have become a strategic necessity. From 2022 to 2024, global central banks bought over 1,000 tons of gold each year, twice the average level of the past decade. More interestingly, the proportion of gold reserves held by central banks in emerging markets is mostly below 10%, far lower than the over 70% in Europe and America. What does this mean? There is still plenty of room for increased holdings.

Another driving force is the erosion of dollar trust. The US national debt has already surged to $38.39 trillion, exceeding the GDP in 2024 by 30%. As the fundamentals of the reserve currency start to tighten, central banks around the world will naturally look for ways to diversify risk. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, has become the most direct choice.

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Layer2Observer

· 01-11 06:10

Well, I need to scrutinize this logic. The phenomenon of the central bank hoarding gold is not wrong in itself, but jumping directly to the conclusion of a "trust crisis in the monetary system" is a bit too hasty. Let me look at the data—38 trillion yuan in government bonds is indeed alarming, but the debt-to-GDP ratio has long been at this level; it's not something that happened suddenly. More importantly, why does the central bank prefer gold over other reserve assets? Technically, this is still a portfolio allocation issue and not necessarily a sign of a deeper crisis. It could simply be a normal risk hedging operation.

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LayoffMiner

· 01-09 09:34

That's not right. Gold is rising so strongly. Is the real signal that the dollar is about to collapse?

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LightningLady

· 01-08 14:05

The golden signal light is a good angle, but the real play still depends on on-chain data. Traditional finance is always a step behind.

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ColdWalletGuardian

· 01-08 06:58

A 70% increase in gold is just the appetizer; the real story is at a deeper level.

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LiquidityHunter

· 01-08 06:54

I just saw this at 3 a.m... The central bank's gold purchases increased from 1,000 tons to 2,000 tons on average, and this data woke me up. Emerging market gold reserves are only below 10%? That means the room for increase is indeed terrifying, can liquidity depth support it? U.S. debt is 38.39 trillion, with a premium of 30% relative to GDP... Sigh, this arbitrage window will close sooner or later. The question is, how long can the price gap between gold and digital assets last? 38.39 is a bit familiar, I saw a similar abnormal fluctuation pattern in DEX data before. Wait, have you guys noticed? Emerging market central banks hold only 10% gold, while Europe and the US hold 70%? Isn't that just a liquidity gap? Once they start increasing holdings on a large scale...

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SelfMadeRuggee

· 01-08 06:53

Gold is just the surface; the real core is the collapse of dollar trust.

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ImpermanentPhobia

· 01-08 06:53

Gold has risen by 70%, in simple terms, it's the dollar depreciating. Central banks are frantically stockpiling gold, isn't this just betting on a collapse of US bonds? Haha. As the US dollar's credibility erodes, countries are fleeing, and gold is just an appetizer; the real show is still to come. Rising from 4,600 to 6,000, are the old Morgan guys just fooling retail investors or have they really seen something? I believe only half. With 38 trillion yuan in national debt and a 30% increase in GDP, what kind of data is this? Someone should have seen through it long ago. Emerging market central banks only hold 10% gold reserves, so isn't Europe's and America's 70% part of a bigger chess game? What about us? Speaking of which, the rise in gold is actually due to fiat currency devaluation. Shouldn't some immutable assets be re-evaluated now? Hey. Central banks are frantically buying gold; I just see this as laying the groundwork for something, and it certainly won't be good.

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TerraNeverForget

· 01-08 06:48

Gold has surged, but I still prefer BTC. Traditional assets are ultimately outdated in their approach.

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UncleWhale

· 01-08 06:45

The dollar is committing suicide; gold is just a funeral item.

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BlindBoxVictim

· 01-08 06:32

Wait, the logic behind the gold signal lights is quite interesting, but to be honest, Bitcoin is the real safe haven choice. The US dollar is so weak that central banks should have seen through it long ago; it's just now that they are reacting, which is a bit late. Emerging market central banks only hold 10% in gold? Once this data comes out, institutions will definitely start疯狂扫货 (crazy buying). By the way, the revaluation of digital assets has just begun. I love hearing this; finally some financial media are starting to get this. Central banks buy over 1,000 tons of gold annually, which basically means they are gradually abandoning the US dollar. The concept of 38 trillion yuan in government bonds... No wonder everyone is looking for a way out, rushing into gold and the crypto圈 (circle).

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