2026 may become a pivotal turning point in the cryptocurrency market. Amid the Federal Reserve's leadership change, weakening employment margins, and policy disruptions during an election year, the density of macro and crypto-related events will significantly increase, likely raising the market volatility center. Monthly CPI and employment data, multiple updates to economic forecasts (SEP) at FOMC meetings, and the potential government shutdown risk window will continue to amplify cross-asset pricing fluctuations; at the same time, the final implementation phase of MiCA, major protocol upgrades, the Mt. Gox repayment deadline, and the historic inflection point of "about 15 months before the next halving" may also serve as key trigger factors for the market at different stages.

In the context of multiple variables intersecting, 2026 is unlikely to form a sustained one-way trend. Macro and crypto catalysts will alternately dominate market pricing, and the market is more likely to exhibit a "range convergence, event-driven" operational pattern. For investors, the core challenge is not in directional judgment but in how to proactively manage positions and risk exposure around key windows. #Cryptocurrency