#我的2026第一条帖 Daily Hotspot Overview, with cash red envelopes, Q&A, suitable only for those who are determined to trade systematically and execute disciplined strategies. Spend ten minutes here to secure your future investments.

Bitcoin chips, BlackRock withdrawals, SKR release, rate cut uncertainties! Use the “Intelligence Room” to see through the fog of bulls and bears at a glance.

Just intercepted six ‘2026 Year-Start Primary Market Confidentials’ from different channels. I am [Your Chief Architect], and also tonight’s ‘Intelligence Analysis Chief Advisor’.

All six confidentials are marked ‘Urgent’, but point in completely opposite directions. Our task is cross-validation to uncover the truth:

【Confidential A: Bullish Agent Report】

"Source: Glassnode" Intelligence shows: Bitcoin’s new year chip structure is significantly stable, market enthusiasm is systematically rebuilding. (Assessment: Long-term positive)

【Confidential B: Bearish Reconnaissance Alert】

"Source: Price Frontline" Urgent: Bitcoin briefly broke below the $91,000 support line, technical risks remain. (Assessment: Short-term negative)

【Confidential C: Event Pre-Alert】

"Source: Solana Insider" Preview: ‘Solana Mobile native token SKR’ will be officially launched on January 21. (Assessment: Potential catalyst)

【Confidential D: Institutional Behavior Mystery】

"Source: On-Chain Monitoring" Anomaly report: BlackRock transferred 3,040 BTC and 61,359 ETH from a certain address within 8 hours, motive unknown. (Assessment: Major suspicion)

【Confidential E: Sentiment Monitoring Summary】

"Source: Santiment" Monitoring shows: Crypto community interest is fully rebounding, Meme coins, RWA, and ETFs are becoming new focal points. (Assessment: Sentiment warming)

【Confidential F: Macro Directive Change】

"Source: Fed Watch" Briefing: Due to the latest employment data, market expectations for Fed rate cuts have cooled again. (Assessment: Macro headwinds)

Six confidentials, two bullish, two warning signals, one event preview, one behavior mystery. The intelligence is conflicting— which one should you believe? Today, I won’t be a mouthpiece; I will be your ‘Chief Intelligence Discriminator’. In five minutes, synthesize these six contradictory pieces into a 《2026 Year-Start Bull-Bear Power Real Comparison Chart》, revealing which are ‘smoke screens’, which are ‘real strength’, and how you should adjust your ‘battle plan’ now.

“Professional intelligence work doesn’t rely on a single source; only cross-verify. We categorize these six pieces based on ‘source credibility’ and ‘impact timing’:

First Layer: Hard Data (On-chain facts and price facts)— Most credible but require interpretation

* Confidential B (BTC dips below $91K): This is 【Red: Factual Event】🔴. Price is the final result of market battles and the benchmark fact that all intelligence must explain. It defines the current short-term weakness pattern.
* Confidential D (BlackRock withdrawal): This is 【Blue: Actual Behavior】🔵. On-chain whale actions are facts, but motives are mysterious. It could be transferring to cold wallets (long-term holding), to exchanges (potential selling pressure), or preparing for ETFs. This is the highest priority monitoring target right now.

Second Layer: Soft Data & Sentiment (Data inference and community sentiment)— Important reference but not direct instructions

* Confidential A (Glassnode chip stability): This is 【Golden: Slow Variable Inference】🌟. An optimistic interpretation based on on-chain behavior, an important basis for medium- to long-term optimism, but cannot reverse short-term price breakdown.
* Confidential E (Santiment sentiment warming): This is 【Orange: Sentiment Indicator】🟠. Shows market attention returning, a necessary condition for active markets but not sufficient.

Third Layer: Events & Macro Variables (Future variables)— Determine the script’s direction

* Confidential C (SKR launch on Jan 21): This is 【Purple: Clear Time Catalyst】🟣. A foreseeable event that could change local ecological patterns. Needs pre-research and contingency planning.
* Confidential F (Fed rate cut expectations cooling): This is 【Gray: Macro Climate Constraint】🌫. A key external variable suppressing overall market valuation and risk appetite. Until it improves, a full bull market is unlikely.

【Intelligence Analysis Overall Conclusion】

Current battlefield:

The market is in fierce confrontation between “micro-structural improvement” and “macro expectations suppression + short-term price breakdown”. BlackRock’s abnormal move is the biggest variable; SKR’s release is a potential turning point.

Your task: Respect short-term price reality in macro headwinds, closely monitor whale behavior, leverage sentiment recovery for research, and prepare for key events.

Three-step Action Plan in the Fog

“Understanding the fog requires more than intuition. During this ‘information contradiction, unclear direction’ chaos, act like an agent and follow these three disciplines:

Step 1: Establish ‘Safe House’, define boundaries with facts

1. Technical baseline: Whether BTC can quickly recover and stabilize above $91K as the first ‘safety line’ for short-term market strength. Stay defensive and observant offline.
2. Behavior monitoring: Continuously monitor the subsequent flow of BlackRock withdrawal addresses. This is the highest priority for judging their intent (bullish/bearish).

Step 2: Conduct ‘Intelligence Reserve’, not immediate action

1. Research list: Use signals of ‘sentiment warming’ and ‘chip stability’ to deeply study
"Meme coins",
"RWA",
"ETF" and
"Solana ecosystem" projects with solid fundamentals. Build your ‘Quality Asset Pool’.
2. Event simulation: Prepare scenario analysis for SKR launch on Jan 21: If market reacts enthusiastically, which assets benefit most? If not, what’s your response?

Step 3: Manage ‘Macro Exposure’, control overall risk

1. Lower expectations: Under the background of ‘Fed rate cut expectations cooling’, completely abandon short-term violent market fantasies. Adjust total positions and leverage accordingly.
2. Patience: Wait for ‘price facts’ and ‘whale intentions’ to clarify signals. Prioritize cognitive reserves over capital deployment until signals appear.

Summary: Keep bottom line, monitor whales, do research, wait for signals. Surviving and staying sharp during information conflicts is the greatest victory.

“Action plan is issued. If you understand and are ready to execute, reply ‘Received’ in the comments.

Now, enter the dual-channel assessment of the ‘Genius Trader’ Intelligence Department!

Channel 2: Analysis Notes Creative Award (Inclusive Contribution Award)

For peers who did not win in real-time Q&A, your exclusive channel is now open!

Participation method:

1. Follow and join the intelligence network (Fan Group).
2. Combine your observations with your analysis of “any confidential” from this session, create “My Analysis Notes”, and post it on Gate Dynamics.
3. Be sure to include the hashtag 2026 Year-Start Intelligence and @ me. Reward rule: By 8 pm tomorrow, I will randomly select one among all who complete the above three steps and send out a second ‘Genius Fragment’!

Hello everyone, I am Eudora Qi, [Your Chief Architect].
What I deliver is not just a simple market brief, but a set of 【Cognitive Warfare System】 that enables you to discern information like an intelligence officer, simulate scripts like a strategist, and ultimately act rationally like a decision-maker.
Follow us, tonight we will launch a “BlackRock Withdrawal Behavior Special Analysis”, combining more on-chain fingerprints to deeply analyze the three core scripts behind this hundreds of millions of dollars in asset movement.

May everyone see through the battlefield of information clearly and win decisively. See you tonight!