Non-Farm Payroll Data Released: How "Good News" Below Expectations Reshapes the Short-Term Landscape of the Crypto Market

1. The Essence of the Data: Weak Non-Farm Payrolls = Reinforced Expectations of Easing

The latest U.S. December non-farm employment data shows an increase of 50,000 jobs, below the market expectation of 60,000. Although the unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.4%, combined with the downward revision of previous figures to 56,000, this report confirms a "moderate cooling" in the U.S. labor market.

From the experience of three bull-bear cycles, the impact logic of such data remains consistent:
• Short-term positive for risk assets: Weak data reinforces the Fed's rate cut expectations, leading to falling U.S. Treasury yields and a pressured dollar, providing liquidity support for risk assets denominated in USD such as Bitcoin.
• Long-term trend validation: If subsequent economic data (like CPI, PMI) continue to weaken, the market will shift from "loose trading" to "recession trading," which suppresses risk appetite.
• Current key signal: Fed Governor Stephen Miran previously issued a dovish signal of "a 150 basis point rate cut by 2026," resonating with the non-farm data. Short-term easing expectations have replaced economic fundamentals as the core variable driving asset prices.

2. Impact on the Crypto Market: Structural Divergence Intensifies

1. BTC: Liquidity Beneficiary but Needs to Break Technical Barriers
• Positive factors: Easing expectations reduce opportunity costs of holding BTC, combined with inflows into spot ETFs (e.g., BlackRock's iBit inflow of $372 million in a single day), providing price support.
• Risks: BTC remains oscillating in the $90,000-$94,000 range, needing a volume breakout above $94,000 (weekly average cost) to confirm a new upward trend. If support at $88,800 is lost, it may dip to the $85,000-$87,000 zone.

2. ETH: Institutional Holdings as a Double-Edged Sword
• "7 Siblings" and other institutional holders hold over $800 million worth of ETH, but the price has repeatedly oscillated within the $3,000-$3,200 cost zone. Falling below $2,950 could trigger stop-loss orders, increasing selling pressure.
• Long-term highlights: Staking yields (annualized 3-4%) and Layer 2 ecosystem development (such as Arbitrum, Optimism on-chain activity growth) provide fundamental support.

3. Altcoins: Survivors in a High Beta Game
Strong assets (e.g., UNI, AAVE): Must hold key cost zones (UNI cost basis $5.743, AAVE cost basis $158.21). If BTC stabilizes, funds may rotate into these tokens with real cash flow and ecosystem demand.
High-risk assets (e.g., Meme coins): Easing expectations may stimulate short-term speculation, but strict position control (≤5% of total funds) is necessary to prevent liquidity crashes and flash crashes.

3. Practical Strategies Based on Three Bull-Bear Cycles
1. Position Management: Three-layer approach to handle volatility
Bottom layer (60%): BTC + ETH spot holdings as core ballast.
Flexible layer (30%): Add positions when BTC breaks above $94,000 or retraces to $85,000-$88,000.
Cash layer (10%): Reserve for black swan scenarios (e.g., systemic sell-off due to worsening economic data).
2. Trend Observation Points
Breakout signals: BTC daily close above $94,000 with ETF net inflows for three consecutive days.
Risk signals: U.S. CPI data rebounds unexpectedly or Fed officials suddenly adopt hawkish rhetoric.
3. Psychological Discipline
Avoid "FOMO chasing": The first rally after non-farm data is often a false breakout; wait for a pullback confirmation.
Beware of "excessive pessimism": Historical data shows corrections in a bull market are usually 20-30%. The current correction (about 10% pullback from the high) remains healthy.

4. Outlook for 2026: From "Liquidity-Driven" to "Value Discovery"
The fundamental difference between this cycle and 2017 (retail frenzy) or 2021 (institutional testing) lies in:
• Capital structure changes: Traditional asset giants like BlackRock and Fidelity are now major holders of BTC, with allocations focusing more on long-term value rather than short-term volatility.
• Regulatory clarity: The trend of coordinated regulation by the SEC and CFTC in the U.S. clears obstacles for institutional entry.
Core conclusion: The market will shift from "synchronized rise and fall" to "structural divergence," with projects that have real demand, cash flow, and regulatory progress (such as BTC, ETH, UNI) continuing to attract funds, while narrative-driven altcoins will gradually zero out.

Conclusion: Focus on Signals Amid Noise
Non-farm data is just one piece of the macroeconomic puzzle; the true trend is jointly determined by long-term liquidity environment (Fed policies), technological fundamentals (on-chain activity), and capital flows (institutional allocations).

Current strategy: Use the volatility after non-farm data to build positions in batches within the $88,000-$92,000 BTC and $2,950-$3,200 ETH ranges, while reserving cash for extreme scenarios.

Ultimate tip: Every correction in a bull market is a reward or punishment for investors' cognition—punishing speculators, rewarding strategists.
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Disclaimer: The above analysis is for market interpretation based on publicly available information and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly risky; please assess your risk tolerance rationally.