Has the Bitcoin cycle really become invalid? Market in-depth analysis by Crypto Prophet

Recently, the market has stabilized somewhat, but many people still harbor the same doubt: why isn’t the “four-year cycle” of Bitcoin working as it used to? The previous patterns were quite clear—accumulating before the halving, then about a year after the halving, a crazy surge, followed by a long bear market. But after the April 2024 halving, BTC hit a high of 126,000 in October 2025, then plunged into a deep correction, and by 2026, it has been oscillating repeatedly. The entire rhythm has been disrupted, leading some to ask: are the cycles really broken? Has the bull market truly ended?

The answer is not so pessimistic. Cycles haven’t disappeared; the rules of the game are just evolving. Bitcoin is shifting from a “retail rollercoaster” to a “strategic asset for big funds,” and this transformation determines its future trajectory.

The diminishing effect of halving, the story of supply losing its magic

This is the core issue. Every halving reduces Bitcoin’s new supply by half, and in the past, this caused seismic market shocks. But today, the situation is very different.

Bitcoin’s annual inflation rate has fallen below 1%, even lower than the new supply rate of gold. This means each halving’s supply shock is becoming relatively smaller. With 450 BTC added daily (about $40 million market cap), facing billions of dollars in capital, this incremental supply is negligible. Relying solely on “supply reduction” to drive explosive growth has lost its former power.

Changing market participants, a complete rewrite of holding structures

This is the real engine behind this cycle. The participants are no longer retail traders seeking short-term gains but a group of “iron-hardened holders”:

First force: Institutional capital via spot ETFs. Global giants like BlackRock and Fidelity launching Bitcoin spot ETFs have opened the door to compliance for traditional finance. By 2025, these ETFs have absorbed nearly $47 billion. The nature of this money is entirely different—it’s long-term strategic allocation, not for short-term trading.

Second force: Corporate “HODL plans.” Led by MicroStrategy, more and more traditional listed companies are adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets. Currently, over 1 million BTC are held by listed companies worldwide, locked in their financial statements, permanently removed from circulation.

Third force: The emergence of national-level capital. Sovereign wealth funds and national reserves are beginning to explore possibilities. Industry forecasts suggest that by the end of 2026, various institutions may hold over 4.2 million BTC, nearly one-fifth of the total supply.

These “iron hands” pursue Bitcoin’s long-term value as digital gold and are inherently insensitive to short-term price fluctuations. They form an unshakable support base below the market.

Narrative upgrade to infrastructure, strengthening of value support

The story in the crypto market is also changing. Past bull markets relied on storytelling and concept creation, with various altcoins dancing on the wind. Now, the market is beginning to focus on real-world applications:

Stablecoins have evolved into a trillion-dollar cross-border settlement network. Real-world assets (RWA), such as government bonds and stocks, are being tokenized on a large scale. Bitcoin itself has developed native infrastructure for lending and earning yields.

What do these changes mean? Crypto assets are transforming from marginal speculative instruments into an essential part of global financial infrastructure. The driving forces behind prices are also shifting—no longer primarily dictated by the halving countdown but increasingly influenced by macro liquidity and central bank policies, the “traditional financial forces.”

2026 outlook: a slow bull with structural differentiation

In this context, Bitcoin’s 2026 market will exhibit features different from the past—sharp rises and falls will decrease significantly, but the overall trend will become more stable. Continuous, phased institutional buying, like a steamroller, will slowly but surely push prices higher. The process will likely involve a stepwise “advance with setbacks,” but violent volatility will become a thing of the past.

Currently, BTC is around 91,770, compared to its all-time high, indicating a correction that reflects the new market logic—no more wild surges and crashes, but the support at the bottom is strengthening.

Practical trading advice

For participants, adapting to this new era requires three shifts:

First, change your mindset from short-term speculation to long-term holding. Treat Bitcoin like a treasure—adopt a “HODL” mentality. In a longer cycle, holding steadily might be the best strategy; don’t always aim for perfect timing.

Second, upgrade your information sources. The halving countdown is no longer the primary reference. Instead, focus on ETF fund flows, listed company holdings, and Federal Reserve policy changes. These are the real indicators of the new cycle.

Third, focus your asset allocation on core holdings. In a market dominated by institutions, Bitcoin with the highest liquidity and consensus will be the absolute core asset and safety net. Some industry forecasts even envision a long-term target price of $250,000, despite inevitable fluctuations along the way; the underlying logic has already changed.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s story is not over; it has simply entered a new chapter. When its pulse resonates with the global macroeconomy, that will be the true main rally. Crypto prophets have already seen the trend clearly—are you ready to view this future with fresh eyes?