#CPIDataAhead

The December 2025 U.S. CPI data is scheduled for release today, Tuesday, January 13, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.

As you noted, market expectations are clustered around 2.7% to 2.8% for the headline figure. This report is particularly significant because it follows a period of "sticky" inflation and recent political pressure on the Federal Reserve, including reports of Department of Justice subpoenas served to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

Here is an analysis of how this data might influence Bitcoin (BTC) and broader risk assets.

Market Expectations & Scenarios
The consensus forecast is 2.7% YoY for both headline and core CPI. Because the market has already "priced in" this number, the volatility will likely come from how much the actual data deviates from this mark.

1. The "Bullish" Scenario: CPI < 2.6%
The Move: BTC likely rallies toward the $95k–$97k range.

The Logic: A lower-than-expected print signals that inflation is finally cooling again. This would revive hopes for more aggressive rate cuts in 2026 (markets currently only see a ~25% chance of a cut in March). Lower rates reduce the "opportunity cost" of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.

2. The "Bearish" Scenario: CPI > 2.8%

The Move: BTC could pull back to support levels near $82k–$84k.

The Logic: A "hot" report suggests inflation is entrenched. This would likely cause the Fed to pause or even reconsider its easing cycle. Higher-for-longer interest rates strengthen the USD and typically drain liquidity from risk assets.

3. The "Mixed" Scenario: CPI at 2.7% (As Expected)

The Move: Short-term "whipsaw" volatility followed by a sideways grind or a slight dip.

The Logic: If the data meets expectations, the focus shifts to the Core CPI MoM (expected at 0.3%). If the monthly core is hot, it signals "sticky" services inflation, which traders often view as a negative for risk-on momentum.

Technical & Macro Context for BTC

Current Structure: BTC has recently formed an ascending triangle and a cup-and-handle pattern on the daily chart, with a key resistance level near $94,895. A positive CPI surprise could be the catalyst to break this resistance.

Liquidity Hunts: Analysts have noted that recent BTC price action is heavily shaped by "liquidation events" rather than organic demand. Expect sharp "wicks" (sudden spikes or drops that quickly reverse) immediately following the 8:30 AM release.

The "Trump Factor": There is ongoing speculation that the new administration might pressure the Fed for faster cuts regardless of the data. This "policy noise" may actually cushion BTC's downside, as some investors view Bitcoin as a hedge against central bank instability.