XRP Technical Outlook: Relief Rally Develops Inside Broader Downtrend

XRP remains within a well-defined descending channel, reflecting a broader corrective structure after the sharp rejection from the $3.25–$3.66 macro supply zone (0.786–1 Fib). That rejection marked a distribution top, followed by sustained bearish continuation.

Recent price action shows a bounce from the lower channel boundary, suggesting a short-term relief rally, though the overall trend has not yet structurally reversed.

EMA Structure (Bearish, Short-Term Recovery)

20 EMA: $2.059
50 EMA: $2.075
100 EMA: $2.211
200 EMA: $2.331

XRP has reclaimed the 20 & 50 EMA, signaling short-term bullish momentum. However, price remains below the 100 & 200 EMA, keeping the medium- to long-term structure bearish.

The $2.21–$2.33 zone represents a major dynamic resistance cluster, where selling pressure is likely to increase.

Fibonacci & Price Structure

1 Fib: $3.661
0.786 Fib: $3.256
0.618 Fib: $2.938
0.5 Fib: $2.715
0.382 Fib: $2.492
0.236 Fib: $2.216
Fib 0: $1.770

XRP is currently trading just above the 0.236 Fib ($2.216), which aligns with a short-term supply zone. Acceptance above this level would allow a move toward $2.49–$2.72, where Fib resistance and EMA confluence exist.

Failure to hold above $2.10–$2.05 could expose price to another test of the $1.99–$1.77 demand zone.

Channel Structure

Price remains capped beneath the descending channel resistance, confirming that the current move is still a counter-trend rally. A decisive breakout and acceptance above the channel, combined with reclaiming $2.33, would be required to confirm a trend reversal.

RSI Momentum

RSI (14): 58

RSI is above neutral, reflecting improving momentum and increasing buyer participation. However, RSI is not yet in strong bullish territory, suggesting room for consolidation near resistance.

📊 Key Levels

Resistance

$2.22 (0.236 Fib)

$2.33 (200 EMA)

$2.49 (0.382 Fib)

$2.72 (0.5 Fib)

Support

$2.10–$2.05 (short-term)

$1.99 (range support)

$1.77 (Fib 0 / macro demand)

📌 Summary

XRP is attempting a short-term recovery after defending the lower boundary of a descending channel. Momentum has improved, but the broader structure remains bearish unless price can reclaim $2.33–$2.49 with strength. Until then, upside moves are likely to face heavy resistance, keeping XRP in a corrective, range-bound environment.

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