Sentiment flipping back to “greed” would usually be a warning.
This time, the structure doesn’t agree.
+ Price pushed from $89K to $97K while participation fell. + Exchange balances are at a 7-month low. + Non-empty wallets are declining, not growing. + October already cleared $19B in liquidations.
That’s not a crowd rushing in. It’s weak hands finishing their exit.
What matters is the order of operations: capitulation happened first → supply left exchanges → price stabilized → sentiment recovered.
That sequence is important. Early recoveries form when price rises with less activity, not more. Leverage stays muted. Volatility compresses. Supply tightens before confidence returns.
“Greed” here isn’t euphoria. It’s relief after a purge.
This isn’t positioning at the top. It’s positioning after excess was already removed.
That’s how trends restart (quietly.)
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Sentiment flipping back to “greed” would usually be a warning.
This time, the structure doesn’t agree.
+ Price pushed from $89K to $97K while participation fell.
+ Exchange balances are at a 7-month low.
+ Non-empty wallets are declining, not growing.
+ October already cleared $19B in liquidations.
That’s not a crowd rushing in. It’s weak hands finishing their exit.
What matters is the order of operations: capitulation happened first → supply left exchanges → price stabilized → sentiment recovered.
That sequence is important. Early recoveries form when price rises with less activity, not more. Leverage stays muted. Volatility compresses. Supply tightens before confidence returns.
“Greed” here isn’t euphoria.
It’s relief after a purge.
This isn’t positioning at the top. It’s positioning after excess was already removed.
That’s how trends restart (quietly.)