The risk from geopolitical tensions pushed WTI prices above $60 in the Asian session

In the Asian crude oil market on Tuesday, WTI moved up from below $59.60 amid strong bullish momentum driven by escalating geopolitical tensions. The Texas Intermediate crude oil, which is the US benchmark, is trading around $59.55, trying to stay above a key support level.

Iranian Tensions Increase Uncertainty

The escalating disruptions in Iran are unsettling the market, especially after President Trump warned that any country doing business with Tehran would face a 25% tariff with the US. Meanwhile, Tehran has recently warned the US and Israel to cease interference. Traders view this situation as a sign of fragile geopolitics that could impact oil flows from the region.

Analysts at Barclays said, “The market is shifting towards unrest igniting, alongside strong fundamental outlooks.” Concerns over supply amid the Iran situation are also diverting attention to heated commentary on the other side.

Negative Factors from Additional Supply

However, hopes for increased oil supply from Venezuela may weaken WTI’s rally. Trump revealed last week that the interim Venezuelan government has agreed to deliver up to 50 million barrels of highly sanctioned oil to the US. Additionally, the President stated that the US intends to fully access Venezuela’s oil, followed by the arrest of former leader Nicolás Maduro.

API Data and Price Forecasts

The key data to watch is the US crude oil inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which will be released this evening. A larger-than-expected inventory drawdown would reflect strong demand and could push WTI prices higher. Conversely, if inventories increase more than market expectations, it may indicate weakening demand or an oversupply environment, which could pressure prices downward.

Today, the oil market will be pulled between geopolitical tensions and potential supply increases, making WTI’s movements a reflection of the risk-reward balance in the market.