The Crypto Cycle Is Delaying: Why 2026 Could Be the Real Year of the Peak?

The Unexpected Break

Bitcoin experienced a 40% drop in a context where global liquidity was expanding. Gold rebounded. The money supply M2 continued to grow. Still, BTC did not follow this bullish trend. It fell below $100,000. This decoupling breaks a relationship that for years served as a compass for investors: when liquidity increases, Bitcoin rises.

During the 2020-2021 bull market, this mechanism operated with surgical precision. But this cycle introduced a new variable. While traders anticipated all-time highs, they received the opposite.

Raoul Pal’s Thesis: A Longer Cycle

Macro analyst Raoul Pal proposes an explanation that redefines the crypto calendar: the traditional 4-year cycle did not disappear; it extended to 5 years. This prolongation shifts the true peak from 2025 to 2026.

The consequence is counterintuitive: there will be no crypto winter this year, but a delayed mega rally. The gains many expected for the end of 2024 have simply been postponed, not canceled.

What Paralyzed the Macroeconomic Clock?

U.S. sovereign debt continues its upward trajectory. Interest service expenses are becoming increasingly unsustainable. The government needs lower interest rates to refinance without worsening the deficit.

Jerome Powell, however, maintained high rates to control inflation. This decision delayed the monetary easing that typically catalyzes bullish movements in cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin responds to the overall economic cycle; when that cycle stretches, the crypto timeline does the same.

Pain Now, Profit Later

Sharp corrections and subsequent rebounds can coexist on different timeframes. In 2019, the Fed ended the restrictive cycle and began easing. Still, Bitcoin continued to fall for another six months before recovering strongly.

Liquidity takes time to filter into markets. If this pattern repeats, an additional 50% drop is plausible before hitting support. Once liquidity flow reactivates, revaluation could be accelerated and pronounced.

A season of altcoins remains viable. Bitcoin will lead the movement; altcoins will follow afterward.

Current Data: Bitcoin trades at $96.87K with a +1.94% movement in 24 hours, remaining within the volatile range characteristic of this transitional period.

Next Catalysts

The coming quarters are decisive to validate or dismiss Raoul Pal’s hypothesis. It is anticipated that the new Federal Reserve administration will implement rate cuts. Such reconfiguration could reactivate the liquidity mechanism.

If the theory is confirmed (prediction: end of the first quarter), the bullish cycle was never interrupted; it was only postponed in time. The $200,000 or higher highs remain on the horizon, just with a different destination.

Key Questions

What is Bitcoin’s scenario for 2026?
Analysts suggest that BTC could reach all-time highs in 2026, potentially surpassing $200,000, if liquidity and macroeconomic conditions align with the extended bullish cycle.

What are the main risks toward 2026?
Global recessions, stricter regulations, liquidity retrenchment, or sustained fractures in key technical supports pose threats to the bullish scenario.

Projections for Bitcoin in 2030?
Valuation estimates for 2030 range between $380,000 and $900,000, driven by supply scarcity, accelerated institutional adoption, and coverage against structural inflation.

Bitcoin as long-term inflation hedge?
Bitcoin’s finite supply positions it as a safe haven asset against monetary devaluation, especially relevant during prolonged macroeconomic uncertainty and credit expansion periods.