ETH/BTC Rally Could Hit 95% If Key Resistance Breaks – But Risks Loom

TLDR - ETH/BTC faces a critical juncture at 0.042 BTC resistance that could trigger a 95% surge toward 0.066 BTC - A bear pennant breakdown threatens downside targets of 0.024–0.025 BTC - The pair is completing a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders formation on weekly charts - History suggests similar setups in 2019–2021 led to major Ethereum outperformance

The Bull Case: Inverse Head-and-Shoulders Taking Shape

The Ethereum-to-Bitcoin ratio is painting a compelling technical picture. On the weekly timeframe, ETH/BTC is constructing a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders reversal pattern—a setup historically associated with major trend reversals. The formation’s neckline sits at approximately 0.042 BTC, and a definitive close above this level could catalyze a 95% advance to 0.066 BTC.

This isn’t speculation based on isolated chart theory. The 2019–2021 period witnessed an nearly identical configuration that preceded Ethereum’s substantial outperformance relative to Bitcoin. The current price action appears to be developing the right shoulder phase, typically the final consolidation stage before explosive breakouts materialize.

Technical measurement suggests the pattern’s projected move aligns with the vertical distance between the deepest point and the neckline level. If volume accompanies the breakout, traders view this as strong confirmation that the long-term structure remains intact and capable of delivering the forecasted 95% gain.

Market Veterans Signal Bottom Formation

Prominent analyst Michael van de Poppe highlighted that ETH/BTC likely established a major low point during April 2025, with 2026 potentially unfolding as a recovery year for the pair. His assessment aligns with the gradual consolidation pattern visible on weekly charts following that bottom formation.

The convergence of technical evidence—historical pattern repetition, analyst commentary, and current price structure—suggests conviction among market participants that upside breakouts may be approaching. ETH currently trades near $3.30K while BTC sits around $95.59K, with the ratio needing to decisively crack through the 0.042 resistance to validate the bullish narrative.

Short-Term Weakness Poses Immediate Threat

However, the intermediate-term outlook presents complications. Three-day charts reveal a bear pennant configuration that typically precedes downward moves once consolidation resolves. Breaking below this pennant’s support boundary could redirect ETH/BTC toward 0.024–0.025 BTC, effectively dismantling the larger bullish structure.

This dual-scenario framework reflects the market’s current indecision. The weekly pattern suggests substantial upside if momentum resumes, but three-day technicals warn that short-term weakness could derail bulls before the major move materializes. Traders must monitor the pennant support—failure to hold here would signal that the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern remains invalidated until further notice.

0.042 BTC: The Line in the Sand

The neckline resistance at 0.042 BTC represents the critical inflection point determining near-term direction. Volume strength accompanying any move above this zone matters significantly—anemic volume breakouts often suffer reversals, while high-volume breaks tend to produce sustained advances.

Until this level receives a convincing break to the upside, the consolidation phase continues and risk-reward calculations favor waiting for clearer directional confirmation. The coming weeks will determine whether ETH/BTC repeats its 2019–2021 performance trajectory or if bearish pennant structures take control.