Today's Core: Don't chase falling prices during a downtrend; support levels determine victory or defeat.

1. Indicator Qualitative: This is a "trend relay correction" rather than a "reversal."
The 4-hour MACD death cross generally has strong guiding significance for trading ranges.
- Current Situation: MACD has a death cross above the zero line, indicating a technical correction within a strong bullish context. This means the selling pressure from above $3,400+ has not been fully digested, and the market is using time to expand space.
- Timeliness: 4-hour adjustments usually last 2-3 trading days. Since the death cross has just formed, ETH is likely to remain volatile and decline to test support levels within today.

2. Bitcoin (BTC) Drag Effect
BTC dropped from over $97,000 yesterday to $95,300, exactly retracing to its 4-hour midline.
- Correlation Logic: BTC's correction has increased risk-averse sentiment in the market, with funds flowing into stablecoins or holding cash on the sidelines.
- Key Support: BTC's $94,500 - $95,000 is the "lifeline" of this rally. If BTC stabilizes here, ETH's MACD may form a "second golden cross" or become dulled at low levels, creating a trap for false breakout.

3. Why is ETH's MACD more "unattractive" than BTC?
- Exchange Rate Pressure: ETH/BTC exchange rate is struggling at a low of 0.0345.
- Negative Factors: January 16th is the big unlock day for Arbitrum (ARB). As a leading Layer 2 project, the liquidity pressure from unlocking will indirectly suppress ETH's rebound momentum.
- Regulatory Uncertainty: Yesterday, the US Senate postponed a crypto hearing, and policy uncertainty caused short-term speculative funds to exit before the US stock market opens.

4. Strategies for "4-hour MACD bearish entry"
First: MACD continues to expand downward (bearish)
- Observation: ETH closes below $3,250.
- Conclusion: MACD bearish momentum will officially take over, and a rebound is a selling point.
- Defensive Level: Watch $3,190 (4-hour 200-day moving average support).

Second: MACD flattens with "air support" (bullish)
- Observation: BTC holds above $95,000, and ETH consolidates around $3,280 with reduced volume.
- Conclusion: This is the main force using the death cross indicator to shake out high-leverage longs.
- Opportunity: When a golden cross appears on the 1-hour chart with a rebound, it is a good entry point for long positions.

In the Asian session, ETH's 4H MACD has officially formed a death cross, combined with BTC retracing to $95,300, showing clear signs of stagnation and pullback.
Core Strategy: Do not forcibly counter-trade during the early stage of a death cross. Since ARB unlocks today and funds are cautious before the US stock market opens, focus on the support zone of $3,250 - $3,275. If the MACD red bars shorten and the price holds this level, it is a "false drop"; if BTC volume breaks below $94,500, ETH will accelerate its rebound toward $3,200.
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