From fans to fundamentals: Why Mike Novogratz says XRP and Cardano need to prove their true value

Mike Novogratz, founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital, raises an uncomfortable question for two of the biggest cryptocurrencies in the market: can loyal communities sustain a crypto project in the long term? His answer, essentially, is no. According to Novogratz, the cryptocurrency industry is at a crucial inflection point. The market is moving away from narratives driven by excitement and hype to focus on solid fundamentals, measurable revenue, and practical use. In this new scenario, tokens like XRP and Cardano (ADA) face a rigorous test: besides dedicated fan bases, they need to demonstrate tangible value.

What has changed in the crypto market assessment

“Ripple can stay stable? Cardano can stay stable?” Novogratz’s question, asked during a conversation with Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, touches on a central point: the market has evolved. Tokens that do not function as “money” in the traditional sense will be evaluated as conventional businesses—based on revenue, real usage, and measurable value. This is a drastic change from the early years of crypto, when narratives and community were often enough to drive value.

The old paradigm valued promises. The new paradigm demands proof. XRP and Cardano have built solid communities over the years, but Novogratz questions whether that is enough as more options emerge in the crypto market. As he put it: “Charles Hoskinson maintained the Cardano community with a blockchain that people don’t use much. He has a strong community, just like XRP. Is it possible to keep it cohesive when more and more options appear?”

On-chain metrics expose the reality of real usage

The numbers speak for themselves. According to CryptoQuant data, XRP has approximately 7.5 million active addresses, while Cardano has around 10 million. At first glance, these numbers may seem impressive. However, when compared to Solana—which routinely records millions in daily activity driven by DeFi, applications, and meme tokens—the difference in usage pattern becomes evident.

Market capitalization also reveals this disconnect. XRP has a market cap of approximately ($118.54 billion), ranking fifth among cryptocurrencies. Cardano is around $13.41 billion, in 12th place. Solana, despite a smaller market cap US$73.54 billion, demonstrates significantly more practical activity on the blockchain. This disparity between market cap and real blockchain usage is precisely what concerns Novogratz.

The contrasts reveal what works

Novogratz points to emerging examples like Hyperliquid—a decentralized futures exchange that generates real revenue and burns most of its profits to buy back its token. This model creates an economy closer to traditional stocks, where value is derived from actual cash flow, not just speculation.

This contrast is instructive. While XRP depends on partnerships with banks through RippleNet to justify its value, the reality is that organic adoption remains modest. Cardano, likewise, has a robust blockchain but with limited activity compared to its market cap.

What’s next: revenue and usage in focus

Novogratz’s outlook is not pessimistic—it’s realistic. The crypto market is mature enough to demand more than community. It demands proof. Projects need revenue, practical use, measurable value. In this new scenario, XRP and Cardano face a choice: evolve into solid business models or continue relying on communities that, sooner or later, may seek projects with greater evidence of real utility.

For Novogratz, this is the most important question XRP and Ripple, as well as Cardano and its community, need to answer in the coming years. Community is an asset, no doubt. But it is no longer enough.