Bitcoin's recent dip is quite sharp. It nearly broke below $86,000, erasing the year's January-to-date gains, turning the monthly return negative, currently at -0.5%. To put it in perspective, on January 14th, it just broke through $97,000, and from that high, it has already fallen about 10.9%.

Several factors are at play behind this decline. While geopolitical risks still exist, Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes haven't really shown up during this period; market expectations for the Fed's rate cut pace are also adjusting, with concerns about tightening liquidity rising. More directly, institutional factors may be influencing the move—net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, combined with overall market deleveraging, have naturally increased selling pressure.

Looking at historical data, Bitcoin's performance in January has generally not been too bad. Since 2013, the average return in January is +3.81%, with a median of +0.62%. Over the past 13 years, January has seen 7 up years and 6 down years, roughly evenly split. However, a scenario like this year—rising sharply at the start of the month and then quickly giving back all gains, turning the monthly line negative—is quite uncommon. $BTC

My view is that this correction is more like a short-term release of sentiment and liquidity, and doesn't necessarily indicate a trend reversal. Especially, the persistence of ETF fund outflows needs to be monitored; if there is a subsequent return to net inflows, market sentiment could recover quickly. Additionally, based on historical patterns, a January decline doesn't mean the whole year is lost—over the past six years, some Januarys ended lower, but the full year still closed higher.

In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate, and the deleveraging process might not be over yet. But if the macro environment doesn't worsen further, Bitcoin could gradually find support above $80,000. The overall trend for this year will still depend on the Fed's actual actions, institutional capital allocation willingness, and broader macro liquidity conditions. Historical data can serve as a reference, but each cycle's structure is different—this cycle, especially with ETF and traditional institutional participation, may see more frequent volatility, but I believe the medium- to long-term trend is not over yet.