Cryptocurrency Market Year-End Adjustment: The Truth Behind Multiple Predictions and Fundstrat Divergences

As we enter 2026, the cryptocurrency market presents a complex and bifurcated landscape. From the Federal Reserve’s policy stance to institutional investors’ market outlooks, from differing industry analyst perspectives to specific token unlock pressures, multiple factors intertwine to shape the future direction of this market. Throughout this process, industry observers and advocates like Natalie Brunell continue to voice industry insights, building communication bridges between policymakers and practitioners.

Policy Shift and Market Expectations: The Fed’s Attitude as a Key Variable

The latest statements from Federal Reserve officials send significant signals to the market. Fed Committee member Harker explicitly stated that after three consecutive rate cuts, there is no need for further adjustments in the coming months. She is more concerned about persistent inflation rather than potential vulnerabilities in the labor market. This stance sharply contrasts with previous market expectations of rate cuts.

Harker indicated that the baseline expectation is to keep rates at current levels at least until spring, until clearer evidence shows inflation has returned to target or the labor market shows substantial softening. Although she is not a voting member of the rate-setting committee this year, she will become one starting in 2026, meaning her views will directly influence the direction of the federal funds rate.

This has profound implications for the cryptocurrency market—under tightening expectations, risk assets face greater pressure, but it also offers more attractive positioning opportunities for those optimistic about long-term trends.

Political Changes and Industry Outlook: Cynthia Lummis’ Departure Sparks Industry Resonance

Another noteworthy policy development is Senator Cynthia Lummis’ announcement that she will not seek re-election. This decision has caused ripples within the crypto industry. Long regarded as a key advocate for Bitcoin and crypto asset development in Congress, her policy push has had a significant impact on industry growth.

Several industry leaders responded: Collin McCune, head of government affairs at a16z, stated that without Lummis’ relentless efforts in Congress, the crypto industry wouldn’t have developed to its current extent; David Sacks, head of AI and crypto affairs at the White House, called her “a great ally in the crypto space”; and partners Greg Xethalis and Kyle Samani of Multicoin Capital emphasized that while work remains, legislation still needs to be advanced in 2026.

Bitcoin advocate Natalie Brunell also expressed gratitude to Lummis, praising her “service and efforts to promote Bitcoin,” and wished her well as she begins the next chapter. These comments reflect Lummis’ central role in the crypto industry and industry concerns over her departure.

Divergence in Institutional Forecasts: Multiple Research Firms Depict 2026 Market Outlook

Facing the 2026 market outlook, several well-known research institutions have released forecasts, revealing both consensus and divergence.

Galaxy Research’s optimistic outlook emphasizes that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2027, but admits that 2026 is too chaotic for precise prediction. Options market pricing for BTC at the end of June 2026 shows equal probabilities for $70,000 and $130,000, and similarly for $50,000 and $250,000 by year-end—reflecting the market’s true dilemma.

Galaxy Research also predicts that at least one Layer-1 blockchain will have built-in revenue-generating applications; stablecoin trading volume will surpass ACH system levels; decentralized exchanges will account for over 25% of spot trading volume; and the total market cap of privacy tokens could break the $100 billion mark.

Coinbase Institutional’s technical perspective focuses on keywords like privacy, AI, application-specific chains, and tokenized stocks for 2026. The firm believes institutional participation is evolving from simple asset allocation to a more professional “DAT 2.0” model, including trading, custody, and blockchain space acquisition. On the technical front, zero-knowledge proofs (ZKP) and fully homomorphic encryption (FHE) will benefit from growing privacy demands, and AI×cryptography will see autonomous trading agent systems emerge.

Citi’s quantitative forecast provides more specific targets: Bitcoin could rise to $143,000 in the next 12 months, a 62% increase from current levels of around $88,000. Analysts note that $70,000 is a key support level; under baseline conditions, BTC could surge due to ETF demand revival and positive stock market expectations. In a bear scenario, a global recession might push Bitcoin down to $78,500; in a bull scenario, increased demand from end investors could push the price to $189,000.

Fundstrat Internal Landscape: Seemingly Divergent but Actually Collaborative

Regarding Tom Lee and his Fundstrat’s market outlook, recent industry discussions have been sparked. On the surface, Lee’s bullish stance contrasts with Fundstrat’s cautious forecasts, but understanding this phenomenon hinges on recognizing different analyst roles and time horizons.

Clear division of roles forms the core of Fundstrat’s internal collaboration. Tom Lee mainly handles macro and liquidity frameworks, serving large fund management institutions, emphasizing a long-term perspective; Sean Farrell, as head of digital asset strategy, targets clients with high crypto allocations (around 20% or more), adopting more aggressive strategies; and Mark Newton analyzes market structure and recovery from a technical standpoint.

All three agree that the macro risks in the first half of 2026 will be high—overall environment will be very volatile. However, their approaches differ: Sean focuses on short-term risk defense, shifting about 50% of the portfolio to cash/stablecoins if BTC retraces to $60,000–$65,000—this is risk management, not outright bearishness; Mark believes a technical rebound is needed first, followed by a sideways recovery; Tom maintains a structural long bias over longer cycles and liquidity considerations.

Fundstrat client Cassian emphasized in a post that understanding who is speaking, their responsibilities, and the time frame is crucial. Sean’s cautious outlook for the first half reflects risk management; current market pricing is nearly perfect, but risks remain—including government shutdowns, trade volatility, Fed chair changes, and high-yield bond spreads tightening.

Sean’s baseline view is that a rebound may occur early in the year, followed by a possible retracement in the first half, creating more attractive opportunities for year-end positioning. Long-term, with major brokerages entering, ETF demand should improve, but short-term challenges like initial coin holder selling and miner pressure persist. For investors, cautious short-term but optimistic long-term prospects for Bitcoin and Ethereum challenging new all-time highs before year-end remain.

Security Alerts and Innovation: Hackers and Tech Dialogue

On security, F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun shared an interesting story. Last year, he suspected his private key had been leaked. To verify whether his address was truly compromised, he transferred 500 BTC to a hacker address as a probe. The hacker only took 490 BTC and left him with 10 BTC “to make a living”—a humorous remark, but also reflecting the complexity of on-chain security and hacker behavior uncertainty.

Meanwhile, Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether, revealed the company’s new direction: developing a mobile crypto wallet integrated with AI features, supporting only Bitcoin, USDT, new stablecoin USAT, and tokenized gold token XAUT. The wallet will incorporate Tether’s decentralized AI platform QVAC with local private AI, supported by WDK (open-source wallet development toolkit). This indicates major crypto firms are integrating AI tech into wallets and payment ecosystems.

Token Unlock Wave: Liquidity Pressure and Market Tests

Earlier this week, multiple tokens faced large unlocks totaling over $70 million. These unlocks involved projects like H, XPL, JUP, among others:

• H unlocked 105.36 million tokens, worth about $15.62 million, representing 4.79% of circulating supply
• XPL unlocked 88.89 million tokens, worth about $11.50 million, 4.52%
• JUP unlocked 53.47 million tokens, worth about $10.28 million, 1.73%
• SOON unlocked 21.88 million tokens, worth about $8.82 million, 5.97%
• MBG unlocked 15.84 million tokens, worth about $8.04 million, 8.42%

Other unlocks include UDS ($5.17 million), SAHARA ($3.57 million), ALT ($2.78 million), VENOM ($2.57 million), SOSO ($2.31 million), W ($1.75 million), and IOTA ($1.09 million).

Such large unlocks often exert short-term pressure on token prices, especially when the unlock proportion of circulating supply is high. Investors should closely monitor liquidity and trading depth changes around unlock events.

Market Observation: MicroStrategy Founder’s Ongoing Signal

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor has again posted Bitcoin Tracker updates. Historically, MicroStrategy tends to disclose additional Bitcoin holdings the day after related announcements. Some market participants interpret this as a potential signal of further accumulation, reflecting institutional confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value.

Current BTC price is $87.88K, with a 24-hour change of -0.73%, still near key support levels.

Regulation and Market Order: New Trends in Platform Governance

On social media regulation, TikTok released new financial industry guidelines, explicitly banning the packaging of illegal financial content with concepts like blockchain and digital assets, especially related to virtual currency exchange services. This indicates mainstream internet platforms are strengthening scrutiny of crypto-related content, moving toward more regulated platform governance.

Conclusion: Seeking Balance Amid Divergence

The 2026 crypto market is at a critical crossroads. From the Fed’s tightening stance to diverse institutional forecasts, from Fundstrat’s internal detailed roles to token unlock pressures, these factors collectively form a complex market picture.

Industry voices like Natalie Brunell continue to serve as vital communication bridges between industry insiders and policymakers. Regardless of short-term volatility, the long-term development of the crypto industry—spanning privacy tech, AI applications, stablecoin payments, and tokenized assets—remains steady. The key is understanding the different roles participants play across various time horizons and seeking balance amid divergence.