Why are the on-chain MVRV Z-Score and nine other major indicators collectively "silent": the Bitcoin bull market structure has changed

When Bitcoin reached a new high last October and began to fluctuate and decline, market analysts纷纷 pulled out their trusted tools—those “top warning indicators” that have repeatedly proven effective during previous bull markets. But surprisingly, from MVRV Z-Score to Puell Multiple, from Bitcoin Rainbow Chart to the 4-Year Moving Average, these historically tested indicators have one by one fallen into “silence.”

What does this really mean? Are these indicators truly invalidated, or has the Bitcoin market itself quietly undergone a structural change?

The Truth Behind the Collective “Loss of Temperature” of the Top Ten Classic Indicators

In past bull market tops, multiple indicators often overheated simultaneously—high Z-Score, high Puell Multiple, exuberant bullish sentiment. But this time, the market has shown a markedly different temperament.

Let’s examine these “silent” indicators one by one to understand their underlying implications.

From Price Breakouts to Valuation Deviations: The “Moderate” Performance of Pi Cycle and Rainbow Chart

Pi Cycle Top Indicator remains one of the most iconic cycle top warning tools in the industry. Its logic is simple yet powerful—when the 111-day moving average crosses twice the 350-day moving average, it usually signals an impending bubble burst. During the 2017 top and the two peaks in 2021, this indicator line crossed as expected.

However, looking at last year’s Q4 performance, the two lines have yet to cross. This may suggest that the pace of price increases is no longer as steep.

Similarly, the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart—which uses logarithmic growth curves and rainbow bands to assess long-term valuation—entered the deep red “bubble zone” in 2017 and touched the orange-red zone in 2021. Currently, prices still hover between yellow and orange, far from the extreme overvaluation regions seen historically.

Of course, this doesn’t mean the market is worry-free. It merely indicates that the previous “irrational exuberance” is being replaced by a more gradual, incremental growth.

Miner Profitability and Multipliers: “Moderate” Supply-Side Pressure

Puell Multiple measures miners’ daily revenue relative to their 365-day average. When this number surges, it often indicates miners are earning fat profits, potentially increasing selling pressure and forming a top.

During the frantic years of 2017, this indicator exceeded a historical high of 7; at the 2021 peak, it broke above 3. Today, the number remains stable in the 1-2 range, showing that miners’ profitability pressure has not reached a critical point.

Similarly, the 2-Year MA Multiplier (the golden ratio multiplier) reached 10x in 2017 and over 5x in 2021, but now sits at only 2-3x. This reflects that the deviation of price from the two-year moving average is not extreme.

Notably, the Bitcoin 4-Year Moving Average shows an interesting decreasing pattern. This ultra-long-term indicator reached 16x in 2017, 6x in 2021, and currently peaks at only 2.3x. The sequence 16→6→2.3 hints at a message: the peaks of each cycle are decreasing, and the market is becoming “gentler.”

The Failure Hypothesis of On-Chain MVRV Z-Score

If the moderate performance of the above indicators can be explained as a change in rhythm, the behavior of the On-Chain MVRV Z-Score is even more intriguing.

The MVRV Z-Score is a key tool for judging whether Bitcoin’s valuation deviates from its “real value.” It compares the current market cap with the “realized cap” (the total cost basis of all coins) and calculates the standard deviation deviation. This indicator has been a “top warning weapon”—the higher the Z-Score, the more people are in profit, indicating market “too profitable” and risk accumulation.

Historically, this indicator exhibits clear cyclical patterns:

• 2017 Top: Z-Score approached 10, setting a record high
• 2021 Top: Z-Score exceeded 7, followed by a market crash
• Current State: Z-Score remains in a neutral 2-4 range

Even more noteworthy is the MVRV Rate—a variant that adds statistical analysis to MVRV, measuring the current MVRV against its historical average in standard deviations. Surprisingly, the peaks of MVRV Rate at each bull market top have also shown a clear decreasing trend, with divergences between price and this indicator appearing at times.

What does this imply? Indicators like the MVRV Z-Score, based on historical data, are experiencing diminishing predictive power. The once “absolute thresholds” (e.g., Z-Score > 7 indicating danger) no longer apply. We need to recalibrate these tools for the current market.

“Moderate” Calmness on the Supply Side

On-chain supply indicators also show similar moderation.

Bitcoin Long Term Holder Supply (LTH) tracks the supply held for over 155 days. Historically, at market tops, these “smart money” often sell off massively to realize profits. Before the 2017 top, LTH experienced a year-long sell-off; the first top in 2021 also saw a sustained half-year decline.

Currently, although a slow sell-off has persisted for half a year, its magnitude does not match the historical experience at previous peaks. This suggests a subtle shift in long-term holder behavior.

Similarly, Bitcoin Short Term Holder Supply (STH) (supply held less than 155 days) reflects new capital inflows and speculative enthusiasm. Historically, surges in STH often foreshadowed tops—at the 2017 top, STH reached nearly 8 million BTC in speculative peaks; in 2021, it approached 6.5 million BTC.

Interestingly, although current STH continues to rise and approaches 5.5 million BTC, the high price point (October 6 last year) has already passed, unlike previous cycles where STH peaks coincided with price tops. Speculation and price dynamics are becoming less tightly linked.

Sentiment Indicators “De-Extremed”

Bitcoin NUPL (Unrealized Profit/Loss Ratio) directly measures overall market greed. It is calculated as (Market Cap - Realized Cap)/Market Cap; values above 0.75 indicate extreme greed (top signal), below 0 indicate fear (bottom).

This indicator used to be very aggressive—exceeding 0.8 at the 2017 top, over 0.7 in 2021. Now, after reaching a high of 0.64 in early March 2024, it has started a steady decline, eventually falling to 0.34.

Another is the Altcoin Season Index—which tracks the performance of the top 100 altcoins relative to Bitcoin. When this index exceeds 75, it usually signals the start of an “altcoin season,” with funds flowing from BTC into smaller coins. Historically, at the two peaks, this index soared to extreme levels (over 90 in 2017, over 80 in 2021).

Since this bull run, the index has never exceeded 60, remaining in the 30-40 range. This may reflect oversupply of new coins and dispersed liquidity, and also indicates a lack of the “crazy rotation” enthusiasm seen in previous cycles.

Data Paradox: Are Indicators Already “Outdated”?

When we look at these top ten indicators together, a clear pattern emerges: almost all show signs of “peak value decline.”

The most typical example is the MVRV Z-Score:

• 2017 bull top: peak = 10
• 2021 bull top: peak = 7
• 2024 (last Q4): peak = 3

What does this mean? We can no longer expect the MVRV to hit 7 in this cycle, nor can we reliably derive the top value from this indicator.

This is not just a data issue but a paradigm shift. These tools, based on linear price trends and historical statistics, are struggling to adapt to the evolving market structure. Their “absolute thresholds” are losing validity, and a new reference framework is needed.

Deep Logic of Structural Change

So, what has caused all these changes? Why does the Bitcoin market no longer follow past extreme patterns?

First, the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs has altered the capital structure. The launch of Bitcoin futures ETFs at the end of 2021, followed by spot ETFs, has opened the door for institutional and large fund participation. The influx of long-term capital stabilizes supply dynamics, weakening the “crazy-then-crash” extreme volatility typical of retail-dominated phases.

Second, the global liquidity environment has become more complex. Factors like Fed rate cuts, Yen hikes, geopolitical shifts repeatedly disturb BTC’s price trajectory. These external shocks make prices less predictable by simple cycle rules, adding more randomness and market-driven behavior.

Third, Bitcoin’s market position is quietly upgrading. From a “high-risk speculative asset” to a “mainstream reserve tool,” attracting more institutional players. These participants’ trading logic is no longer about extreme gains but about asset allocation and risk hedging. The change in participant structure inevitably alters price behavior.

How to Reinterpret These Indicators

Are these indicators invalid? Not entirely, but their usage needs adjustment.

For investors, the key shifts are:

• From absolute thresholds to relative comparisons: no longer relying on “magic numbers” when a single indicator hits a certain level, but observing the overall trend across multiple indicators.
• From historical replication to flexible calibration: recognizing that thresholds change over time, and adjusting tools accordingly.
• From isolated prediction to systemic analysis: combining MVRV Z-Score, LTH/STH, NUPL, etc., to form a multi-dimensional market perspective.

Currently, BTC trades at $87.80K, still below the historical high of $126.08K. This provides an opportunity to reassess these indicators—using new perspectives to interpret on-chain data and market signals in the next cycle.

Conclusion: From Cycle Asset to Reserve Tool

Whether the October 6 high was the top of this cycle or not, we must accept a fact: Bitcoin’s price volatility may have already broken past previous frameworks. It is undergoing a structural transformation from a “cyclical speculative asset” to a “mainstream reserve tool.”

This shift manifests as: more moderate indicators, rationalized volatility, institutional participation. The simple logic of “everyone in profit equals a top” now needs to be reexamined within a more complex market ecosystem.

The “loss of voice” of the MVRV Z-Score and other nine indicators precisely reflects this structural change. They haven’t truly failed; rather, they remind us that Bitcoin’s market has matured, and our analytical tools and judgment frameworks must evolve accordingly.