#加密市场观察

The value reshuffle under extreme fear, 0.02% truth and the narrative redefinition of the crypto market
Crypto market sentiment has slipped into the extreme fear zone. Against the backdrop of major mainstream assets experiencing significant corrections and SocialFi narratives nearly evaporating, data showing stablecoin real payment share below 0.02% has sparked profound industry reflection on genuine demand.

When the fear index enters an extreme zone, the market's core logic shifts from offense to defense. Although BTC is trading below the mid-term moving average, its support around 86,000 demonstrates the resilience of institutional holdings. Compared to ETH breaking through its oscillation range, BTC's decline appears more as an emotional, passive retracement. The current pressure is not due to a fundamental collapse but stems from collective liquidation of overvalued, hollow narratives. The market is undergoing a thorough de-foaming process.

On-chain settlement volume has increased year by year, but the vast majority of transactions are transfers between exchanges, contract settlements, or volume generated by quantitative trading. The extremely low figure of 0.02% reveals the pain point of crypto assets transitioning from speculative tools to payment media. The current extreme fear in the market is essentially a pessimistic pricing of the slower-than-expected progress in large-scale adoption.

SocialFi narratives have accelerated their collapse, with social tokens dropping over 90%, proving that models lacking sustained social value and relying solely on financial leverage cannot sustain during liquidity contractions. Conversely, Bitcoin's offline payments in places like Las Vegas demonstrate real cost reduction and efficiency improvements by enhancing payment cost structures.

The current pain is an inevitable phase as the market shifts from narrative-driven to demand-driven. Investors should shift their focus from high-inflation, purely speculative projects to applications with genuine revenue and marginal cost advantages. When stablecoin payment share begins to slowly climb from 0.02%, that will mark the true integration of cryptocurrencies into the real economy. $BTC