Cathie Wood Predicts Bitcoin Will Exit Its Down Cycle, While notcoin Faces Different Dynamics

As the cryptocurrency market evolves, with tokens like notcoin entering the landscape, institutional investors continue to assess bitcoin’s position in its traditional four-year cycle. ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood recently shared her perspective on bitcoin’s trajectory, suggesting the asset is approaching the conclusion of its current bearish phase—a view that stands in contrast to broader market anxiety about prolonged correction risks.

Why Bitcoin’s Current Downturn Differs From Previous Cycles

In a CNBC interview, Wood emphasized that bitcoin’s recent correction may be notably milder than historical precedent. “We’re pretty well through the down cycle here,” she stated, attributing this to the subdued nature of the preceding bull market. Unlike past rallies that saw explosive gains, the most recent uptrend demonstrated restraint by bitcoin standards, which Wood believes has naturally limited the severity of the current pullback.

This dynamic presents an interesting contrast to emerging assets like notcoin, which experience entirely different market cycles given their nascent stage. While established cryptocurrencies like bitcoin follow predictable multi-year patterns, newer tokens operate outside these traditional frameworks, making direct cycle comparisons impossible.

Wood rejected fears of a prolonged bear market, noting that the data supports her optimistic thesis. “I know there’s a lot of fear about the four-year cycle,” Wood said, “but we didn’t have much of an upcycle by bitcoin standards, so we think we’re pretty well through the down cycle here.” This assessment suggests institutional investors like ARK are positioning for the next phase of the market.

Bitcoin’s Critical Price Zone: $80,000 to $90,000

The immediate price action around psychological levels remains crucial for sentiment. Wood acknowledged that bitcoin could revisit the $80,000 to $90,000 range before the correction fully resolves. However, ARK’s base case anticipates that these support levels will hold firm.

“We may test in this $80,000 to $90,000 range on bitcoin, but we do think that the test will be successful,” Wood explained. This suggests the organization views current price support as legitimate rather than temporary, with the expectation that any dips within this zone will face strong buying pressure.

Current market data shows bitcoin trading near $87.55K as of late January 2026, with a modest 24-hour decline of 0.76%. The recent volatility underscores Wood’s point about ongoing tests of key levels, though the overall trend remains within her predicted range.

Geopolitical Factors and Risk Asset Sentiment

Recent price volatility reflects broader macro developments influencing risk asset appetite. Following statements from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding tariff delays—announced after discussions with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte—bitcoin saw renewed upside momentum. The decision to postpone tariffs scheduled for February 1 reduced immediate trade concerns, providing support for cryptocurrencies and other risk assets.

Bitcoin swung from the $88,000 range in early trading to $90,500 on the tariff announcement, then retreated slightly before rebounding toward $90,000. This pattern demonstrates how institutional and retail flows respond to macroeconomic headlines, even as longer-term cycle dynamics play out.

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Thesis: Three Revolutions Converging

Beyond cycle analysis and price technicals, Wood frames bitcoin within a far broader strategic narrative. She describes the asset as embodying “three revolutions in one”: a new global monetary system competing with traditional fiat currencies, a transformative technological breakthrough, and the cornerstone of an emerging asset class.

“It is a technology revolution,” Wood said, “and it is the leader of a new asset class.” This characterization positions bitcoin as a maturing institutional investment rather than a speculative commodity. As newer tokens like notcoin attempt to establish themselves, bitcoin’s entrenched position as the category leader strengthens the case for its long-term relevance.

According to ARK’s analysis, once the current correction fully plays out, conditions are set for renewed appreciation. “And then we’re off again,” Wood concluded, reflecting confidence in bitcoin’s next cycle phase. This optimism rests on the foundation that the current drawdown represents “the shallowest four-year cycle decline in bitcoin’s short history,” creating a favorable setup for subsequent gains.