BTC Targeting $107,000 as Selling Pressure from Long-Term Holders Eases Significantly

Recent on-chain analysis reveals a pivotal shift in Bitcoin dynamics. According to Cryptoquant data cited in reports from January mid-month, the selling pressure from early Bitcoin holders—often referred to as “OG holders”—has dramatically weakened. This development, combined with strong exchange outflows, is positioning BTC to potentially reach the $107,000 price level in the near term. As of late January 2026, Bitcoin is trading at $89.34K, still maintaining distance from that target but with technical fundamentals improving.

Chain Data Points to Reduced Selling Pressure

The most compelling indicator comes from the 90-day average of spent UTXOs—a metric that tracks transaction volume from long-term holders. This figure has plummeted from a recent cycle high of approximately 2,300 BTC down to around 1,000 BTC. Such a sharp decline signals that established holders are increasingly entering a holding phase rather than taking profits. This pattern aligns with the largest net outflow of Bitcoin from centralized exchanges recorded since December 2024, suggesting a market-wide accumulation mentality.

Technical Setup Aligned with Macro Headwinds

Multiple factors are converging to support a breakout toward $107,000. Technical indicators remain constructive, while the fundamental shift in holder behavior provides essential psychological support. Beyond on-chain metrics, macroeconomic conditions are sending mixed but ultimately favorable signals. The correlation between Bitcoin and gold has turned negative—a relatively rare occurrence that historically precedes significant Bitcoin rallies. Historical patterns demonstrate that when Bitcoin and gold move in opposite directions, BTC typically appreciates by approximately 56% over a two-month timeframe.

What This Means for Bitcoin’s Near-Term Trajectory

If the current trends persist, analysts believe Bitcoin has transitioned into a genuine breakout phase. The combination of diminishing long-term holder selling, sustained exchange outflows, and supportive macro dynamics could provide the necessary momentum to challenge the $107,000 level. While current price levels remain below that target, the structural improvements in on-chain behavior and macro positioning suggest the conditions are increasingly favorable for reaching this objective in the medium term.