Gold Price in 20 Years: The 2030 $8,900 Forecast Report Reveals the Truth About Investment

The latest gold investment report “In Gold We Trust” published by Incrementum presents a shocking forecast regarding the gold market 20 years from now. The bullish scenario that the gold price could rise to $8,900 by the end of 2030 reflects the current market environment and long-term macro trends. Sufficient evidence has already emerged by 2026 to verify how realistic this prediction is.

The gold market looking ahead 20 years: The bullish phase has only just begun

From the perspective of Dow Theory, a bull market goes through three phases: the accumulation phase where funds quietly gather, the participation phase where general investors enter, and the frenzy phase where speculative enthusiasm peaks. Currently, the gold market is firmly in the second phase, that is, the stage of general investor participation.

This phase exhibits typical characteristics: media coverage becomes increasingly positive, speculative trading volume increases, new investment products are launched one after another, and market expectations are revised upward—this is exactly the situation. Over the past five years, gold prices have risen by 92%, during which the purchasing power of the US dollar has declined by 50%. This is not just a numerical increase but indicates an intrinsic loss of currency value.

The “Decade of Gold” forecast made in 2020 is also coming true. The current movement of gold prices is almost aligned with the inflation scenario trajectory and is trading at levels much higher than the traditional baseline scenario. Last year, gold hit a new high 43 times in US dollar terms, second only to the 57 times in 1979.

The truth revealed by the gold price chart: multiple supporting factors

Several powerful macro factors underpin the forecast of $8,900 for gold in 20 years.

Reorganization of the global monetary system

As shown in Zoltan Pozsar’s paper “Bretton Woods III,” the international order is undergoing dramatic change. Moving from the gold-backed era, through the US debt-dependent system, to a multipolar system supported by gold and commodities, the process highlights three key advantages of gold.

First, gold is a neutral asset not belonging to any specific country or political force, functioning as an integrating element in a multipolar world. Second, gold carries no counterparty risk, and countries can store it domestically to avoid confiscation risks. Third, gold is highly liquid; a survey by the London Bullion Market Association confirms it is more liquid than government bonds.

Historic rush of central bank gold purchases

Since 2009, central banks have continued to net buy in the gold market, accelerating since 2022. They achieved a “hat trick” by adding over 1,000 tons of gold reserves for three consecutive years. By 2025, the global gold reserve will reach 36,252 tons.

Of particular note is the rising proportion of gold in national foreign exchange reserves, reaching 22% in 2025, the highest since 1997. Compared to the peak of over 70% in the 1980s, there is still considerable room for growth.

While Asian central banks are the main buyers, Poland became the largest purchaser in 2024. According to Goldman Sachs analysis, China alone is expected to continue purchasing nearly 500 tons annually, accounting for almost half of the total central bank purchases worldwide over the past three years.

Expansion of the money supply driving gold prices

Since 1900, while the US population increased by 4.5 times, the money supply M2 expanded by 2,333 times. As a result, the per capita money supply increased by over 500 times. The report likens this to “steroid-enhanced athletes,” implying that the apparent growth conceals structural vulnerabilities.

The money supply of G20 countries has been growing at an average annual rate of 7.4%, re-entering an expansion phase after three years of negative growth. This monetary inflation is a key driver of long-term gold price appreciation and directly influences the market outlook over the next 20 years.

Current investment allocation: preparing for 20 years ahead

The traditional 60% stocks and 40% bonds allocation is losing its effectiveness. The report proposes a new allocation:

45% stocks, 15% bonds, 15% gold as a safe asset, 10% performance gold, 10% commodities, and 5% Bitcoin. This rebalancing addresses the loss of confidence in traditional safe assets like government bonds.

The concept of “performance gold” is important. It refers to assets like silver, mining stocks, and commodities that have significant upside potential in recent bullish markets. Historically, in both the 1970s and 2000s, gold led the rally, followed by silver and mining stocks. Currently, this follow-through mechanism is not yet fully operational.

Reading the theoretical value from the shadow gold price chart

The “shadow gold price” concept indicates the theoretical gold price if each country’s money supply were fully backed by gold. This calculation was actually used during the Bretton Woods era.

Based on current money supply figures, the US M0 would need to reach $21,416 per ounce of gold for complete backing, and M2 would require $82,223. In the Eurozone, M0 corresponds to about €13,500 per ounce, and M2 would require an extremely high gold price level.

Historically, a 40% backing ratio was standard. The Federal Reserve Act of 1914 set this at 40%, requiring a gold price of $8,566 for full backing. Between 1945 and 1971, a 25% backing was mandated, and the current shadow price is $5,354.

Currently, gold’s share of the US monetary base is only 14.5%, meaning that 14.5 cents of each dollar are supported by gold, with the remaining 85.5% being nominal value. In the 2000s, this ratio ranged from 10.8% to 29.7%. To reach similar levels, gold prices would need to roughly double to over $6,000.

Compared to the record 131% in 1980, the current stability level is evident. If the 1980 level were translated to today, gold would have been around $30,000.

Scenario analysis until 2030: baseline and inflation divergence

Incrementum’s gold price model presents two scenarios:

Baseline scenario: gold reaches around $4,800 by the end of 2030. The mid-term target was $2,942 by the end of 2025.

Inflation scenario: gold reaches around $8,900 by the end of 2030. The mid-term target was $4,080 by the end of 2025.

As of January 2026, gold is already above the 2025 mid-term target of the baseline scenario. The report indicates that the future gold price will likely be close to the midpoint of both scenarios, depending on the inflation rate over the next five years.

Inflation risks and geopolitical factors: uncertainties 20 years ahead

A second wave of inflation similar to the 1970s cannot be entirely ruled out. Comparing current trends with the 1970s reveals many similarities.

In the short term, deflationary tendencies may persist due to sharp drops in oil prices. The significant appreciation of advanced economy currencies against the dollar also amplifies deflationary effects domestically.

However, policy responses to recession and market turmoil could become highly inflationary. Yield curve control, new rounds of quantitative easing, financial repression, additional fiscal stimulus, and even measures like MMT or helicopter money—once taboo—may be considered.

Historically, gold performs well in stagflation environments. During the stagflation of the 1970s, real annual compound growth of gold reached 32.8%. Silver and mining stocks also recorded gains of 33.1% and 21.2%, respectively.

The gold market in 2030: risk factors and adjustment phases

In the short term, multiple risks exist. If central bank purchases decline more than expected, the current quarterly average of 250 tons could decrease. Speculators rapidly unwinding positions could also pressure prices.

Geopolitical turning points such as resolution of the Ukraine conflict, easing of Middle East tensions, or the end of US-China trade frictions could cause premiums to diminish. If the US economy remains unexpectedly resilient, the Fed might tighten monetary policy further.

Technical overheating and emotional exuberance should not be overlooked. The dollar may also be oversold in the short term, risking a rebound.

The report suggests that in the short term, gold prices could adjust to around $2,800 or remain sideways. This is not seen as threatening the long-term bullish trend but rather as a process stabilizing the bull market.

Coexistence of Bitcoin and gold: a new relationship toward 2030

Bitcoin could benefit from geopolitical reordering. Its decentralized nature and borderless payment capabilities complement the limitations of traditional currencies. The enactment of the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act signals the start of a national-level scramble for digital gold.

By 2025, the market value of mined gold was about $23 trillion. Bitcoin’s market cap is approximately $1.9 trillion, about 8% of gold’s value.

The report indicates that by the end of 2030, Bitcoin could reach 50% of gold’s market cap. Assuming gold is around $4,800, Bitcoin would need to rise to about $900,000. While ambitious, this aligns with past performance of both assets.

The report states that the “competition” between gold and Bitcoin is not necessarily a negative factor. Adjusted for risk, a combination of both assets could outperform individual investments. “Gold for stability, Bitcoin for convexity”—this principle remains unchanged.

Risk factors until 2030: managing short-term corrections

The process of gold regaining its role in portfolios will not be smooth. During bearish stock markets, gold has historically outperformed the S&P 500 in 15 out of 16 bear markets from 1929 to 2025, with an average relative performance of +42.55%.

Bull markets typically experience 20% to 40% corrections. The recent price fluctuations since April suggest this, but prices have quickly recovered and hit new highs. Silver and mining stocks tend to have larger corrections, so investors need to maintain consistent risk management strategies.

Conclusion: gold remains a trusted anchor 20 years from now

The most significant takeaway from this report is that the current bullish gold market is not over; rather, it is still in the midst of the general investor participation phase. Gold is transforming from a relic of the past into a core asset of portfolios.

Whether gold will reach $8,900 by 2030 depends on future inflation trends and the ongoing geopolitical and economic reorganization. However, the long-term upward trend is supported by multiple strong pillars.

The inevitable reorganization of the global financial and monetary system, inflationary tendencies of governments and central banks, the rise of Asia’s economy with affinity for gold, and capital outflows from dollar assets—all these factors are pushing gold prices higher.

As confidence in the existing currency system wanes, gold may regain its status as a “super-national settlement asset,” not as a political tool but as a neutral, debt-free foundation of trust.

By 2030, how much gold’s role has expanded will be closely related to what current investment decisions indicate. Investing in the gold market 20 years from now begins with a deep understanding of today’s global system.