From 2026 to 2046: The 20-year long-term gold price chart suggests an $8,900 reaching scenario

The “In Gold We Trust” 2025 report released by Incrementum provides extremely important insights into the outlook for gold prices over the next 20 years. Rather than just short-term market analysis, this scenario sketches a long-term gold price chart from 2026 to 2046, clearly indicating the role gold will play amid the major upheaval of the global financial order.

Currently, the gold market is moving beyond its traditional role as a mere commodity market and is increasingly recognized as the last bastion against global economic instability. The level that gold prices will reach in 20 years will be a critical criterion for investors when constructing their portfolios.

From Periphery to Core: A Historic Turning Point in the Gold Market

Once, gold was dismissed as a low-yield, outdated safe asset. However, looking at the 20-year chart of gold prices makes it clear how contradictory this perception was.

According to Dow Theory, a bull market consists of three phases: accumulation, public participation, and euphoria. Currently, the gold market is in the second phase, “public participation.” Characteristics of this phase include increasingly optimistic media coverage, rising speculative interest and trading volume, and the launch of new financial products.

Over the past five years, gold prices have risen by 92%, which is not just a market increase but indicates a structural revaluation of value. During the same period, the real purchasing power of the US dollar has declined by nearly 50%, while the value of gold has increased significantly in relative terms.

The “Decade of Gold” forecast published in 2020 suggests that the current gold price trend is aligned with an inflation scenario. Furthermore, this upward trend could accelerate even more toward 2046. The fact that gold has set a record high in USD 43 times last year and has repeatedly hit new all-time highs this year symbolizes a “paradigm shift” in the gold market.

The Path to $8,900 by the End of 2030 and the Vision for the Next 20 Years

Incrementum’s scenario presents two main paths: a baseline scenario and a high-inflation scenario. The baseline predicts gold reaching around $4,800 by the end of 2030, while the high-inflation scenario suggests it could reach $8,900.

The existence of these two scenarios implies that, regardless of the economic environment, there is room for gold prices to rise over the next 20 years. Currently, gold prices already surpass the mid-term target of $2,942 in the 2025 baseline case, and depending on inflation trends, it is highly likely that by the late 2030s to 2046, gold prices will reach levels between the two scenarios or even higher.

In the short term, gold prices may experience slight corrections between 2025 and 2027. Historically, bull markets often see corrections of 20% to 40%, and a temporary dip to around $2,800 should be anticipated. However, these corrections are not expected to threaten the long-term upward trend but should be viewed as part of the portfolio stabilization process.

Central Bank Gold Purchases: An Accelerating 20-Year Trend

Central bank demand for gold reserves has shown remarkable features over the past 20 years. Since 2009, central banks worldwide have been net buyers of gold, and this trend has accelerated significantly since the Russian foreign exchange reserve freeze in February 2022.

In the past three years, central banks have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually, achieving a “hat trick.” According to the World Gold Council, as of February 2025, the total global gold reserves reached 36,252 tons, with gold accounting for 22% of foreign exchange reserves—the highest since 1997.

Particularly noteworthy is that Asian central banks are responsible for most of these gold purchases. In the 2024 country ranking, Poland was the largest buyer, but China’s long-term gold acquisition strategy is highly strategic. Goldman Sachs estimates that China will continue to buy about 40 tons of gold per month, totaling approximately 500 tons annually—almost half of the total central bank demand over the past three years.

This ongoing trend of central bank gold accumulation is expected to continue for at least the next 10 to 20 years. The movement of countries storing gold domestically to avoid confiscation risks will only strengthen.

Inflation and Structural Pressures on Money Supply

Understanding the long-term rise in gold prices requires examining the expansion of the money supply. Since 1900, US population increased 4.5 times from 76 million to 342 million, while the money supply M2 expanded from $900 million to $21 trillion—an increase of 2,333 times. Per capita, this is an increase of over 500 times.

The report likens this phenomenon to “steroid-enhanced athlete muscle growth.” It may look impressive, but structurally, it is highly fragile. In G20 countries, the money supply has grown at an average annual rate of 7.4%, and after three years of negative growth, it is now trending upward again.

Looking ahead 20 years, it is highly probable that governments and central banks will continue to adopt inflationary policies. Recessions and capital market crashes may temporarily cause deflation, but government responses will inevitably take on inflationary characteristics. Yield curve control, quantitative easing, financial repression, additional fiscal stimulus, and unconventional measures like MMT will accelerate over the next 20 years. This expansion of the money supply will remain the primary structural driver pushing gold prices higher.

The New 60/40 Portfolio: Asset Allocation for the Next 20 Years

The traditional 60% stocks and 40% bonds portfolio is no longer optimal in today’s market environment. Incrementum proposes a new 60/40 portfolio with the following asset allocation:

• Stocks: 45%
• Bonds: 15%
• Safe assets like gold: 15%
• Performance gold (silver, mining stocks, etc.): 10%
• Commodities: 10%
• Bitcoin: 5%

This new allocation reflects the loss of confidence in traditional safe assets (such as government bonds). As the credibility of US and German bonds declines, the role of gold becomes increasingly important.

An interesting point is the distinction between “safe assets as gold” and “performance gold.” Performance gold includes silver, mining stocks, and other commodities, which could deliver returns exceeding those of plain gold over the next several years to a decade. By 2046, this layered gold strategy should help balance portfolio stability and growth.

Geopolitical Reordering and the Arrival of Bretton Woods III

The geopolitical landscape is rapidly reordering, creating a highly favorable environment for gold. As Zoltan Pozsar’s paper “Bretton Woods III” suggests, the world is transitioning from the first era backed by gold, to the second era based on dollar trust, and now toward a third era backed by external currencies (gold and other commodities).

Gold has three major advantages as an anchor for this new monetary order. First, gold is neutral and not owned by any country or party, making it a unifying element in a multipolar world. Second, gold carries no counterparty risk and is a pure asset. Third, gold has high liquidity; in 2024, its average daily trading volume exceeded $229 billion, sometimes surpassing that of government bonds.

The relative decline of US dollar hegemony, increasing US fiscal deficits, and shifts in tariffs and currency policies under the Trump administration will further enhance gold’s strategic value. By 2046, gold is likely to further establish itself as a “supranational settlement asset.”

Coexistence with Bitcoin: The Role of Gold in the Digital Asset Era

Gold and Bitcoin are not competitors but complementary assets. As of late April, the total market value of mined gold is about $23 trillion, while Bitcoin’s market value is approximately $1.9 trillion, about 8% of gold’s.

The report indicates that Bitcoin could reach 50% of gold’s market cap by the end of 2030. Assuming the baseline gold price of $4,800, this would require Bitcoin to rise to nearly $900,000. While ambitious, considering past performance, this is not necessarily unrealistic.

A key insight is that the presence of competitors in the non-inflationary asset space does not necessarily disadvantage gold. Instead, a combined investment approach of gold and Bitcoin, following the motto “competition stimulates business,” could deliver better risk-adjusted returns than investing in either alone. By 2046, this understanding is expected to be even more widespread.

Investment Strategy: Balancing Short-Term Fluctuations and Long-Term Outlook

Short-term correction pressures in the gold market should not be underestimated. Historically, bull markets experience corrections of 20% to 40%. Particularly, silver and mining stocks tend to undergo even larger corrections.

In the short term, the following risk factors could exert downward pressure on gold prices:

1. Unexpected decline in central bank buying demand. Currently, about 250 tons are purchased quarterly, but geopolitical shifts could reduce this demand.

2. Rapid reduction of speculative positions. Recent market trends show how quickly large speculators can unwind their positions.

3. Decline in geopolitical premiums. The end of the Ukraine conflict, easing of Middle East tensions, and early resolution of US-China trade disputes could significantly lower geopolitical premiums.

4. Rebound of the US dollar. The dollar is currently oversold in the short term, with extremely negative sentiment. A dollar rebound would exert downward pressure on dollar-denominated gold prices.

However, these short-term fluctuations are only temporary adjustments within the 20-year long-term outlook. Investors building portfolios including gold should maintain consistent risk management strategies and believe in the long-term upward trend.

Gold as Portfolio Insurance

One of gold’s most important roles is as portfolio insurance. Analyzing 16 bear markets in stocks from 1929 to 2025 shows that in 15 of these, gold outperformed the S&P 500, with an average relative performance of +42.55%.

This fact demonstrates how effective gold can be as a defensive asset during major market fluctuations. The report likens gold to Italy’s “Catenaccio” defensive tactic in soccer. Just as Giorgio Chiellini’s reliable defense and Gianluigi Buffon’s stability in goal inspire confidence, gold stabilizes the entire portfolio with predictable resilience, even when other investments fluctuate.

By 2046, this portfolio insurance function of gold is expected to be even more recognized and valued.

Strong Performance in a Stagflation Environment

A key factor supporting a bullish gold market is its excellent performance during stagflation. The report’s analysis of the 1970s stagflation period shows that gold’s average real annual compound growth rate was 7.7%, silver 28.6%, and mining stocks 3.4%. During that period, they achieved returns of 32.8%, 33.1%, and 21.2%, respectively, clearly demonstrating gold’s superior risk-adjusted return profile.

If current high inflation and low growth are early signs of stagflation, the likelihood of significant future gold price increases is quite high. By 2046, this scenario is very likely to materialize.

Theoretical Gold Price Indicated by the “Shadow Gold Price”

The concept of the “shadow gold price” (Shadow Gold Price) proposed by Incrementum is a theoretical gold price assuming the base money supply is fully backed by gold. This approach follows the methodology used during the Bretton Woods era.

Based on current market prices, the following scenarios are envisioned:

• If the US monetary base M0 is fully backed by gold, the gold price would need to reach $21,416.
• If the Eurozone’s M0 is fully backed, the gold price should be about €13,500.
• If the US M2 is fully backed, the gold price would need to reach $82,223.

Historically, full backing was not the norm but partial backing. When the Federal Reserve was established in 1914, the minimum gold reserve ratio was set at 40%, requiring a gold price of up to $8,566 to meet this ratio. Between 1945 and 1971, a 25% backing was required, and the current shadow gold price based on M0 is $5,354.

Of particular interest is the international shadow gold price, which estimates the value if central banks in major currency zones (US, Eurozone, UK, Switzerland, Japan, China) backed their money supply proportionally to their share of global GDP with gold reserves:

• M0 at 25% backing: $5,100
• M0 at 40% backing: $8,160
• M0 at 100% backing: $20,401
• M2 at 25% backing: $57,965
• M2 at 40% backing: $92,744
• M2 at 100% backing: $231,860

Currently, the US’s gold backing in the monetary base is only 14.5%, meaning only 14.5 cents of each dollar are backed by gold, with the remaining 85.5% being “air” (credit).

During the bullish phases of gold in the 2000s, the ratio of gold to the monetary base increased from 10.8% to 29.7%. Achieving similar ratios would require roughly doubling the gold price to over $6,000. Historically, the ratio exceeded 100% in the 1930s, 1940s, and 1980s, with the record 131% in 1980 corresponding to about $30,000 in today’s gold price.

20-Year Outlook to 2046: Gold as a Symbol of Restored Trust

The conclusion of this report is that the bullish gold market is not over; it is still in the midst of the public participation phase. Gold is steadily transforming from a relic of the past into a core asset of portfolios.

What will gold look like in 2046? The report likens gold to the “Michael Jordan” of the asset world—an all-around game-changer with reliable defense and powerful offense.

Several pillars support the long-term rise of gold: First, ongoing global political and economic chaos is driving an inevitable reorganization of the financial and monetary systems. Second, structural inflationary bias by governments and central banks will persist. Third, the rise of regional economies with a strong affinity for gold, especially in Asia and the Arab world, will accelerate. Fourth, long-term capital outflows from US assets (dollars, US stocks, US bonds) are expected. Fifth, the potential realization of excess returns from “performance gold” such as silver and mining stocks.

The current rise in gold prices is not just a reflection of crisis but could be the first sign of a “Golden Swan Moment.” As the trust in existing currency systems continues to decline, gold will recover its role as a traditional store of value and likely as a supranational settlement asset—an impartial, debt-free foundation of trust and exchange, not a tool of political power.

Looking toward 2046, it is highly probable that gold prices will continue to rise beyond the $8,900 milestone, following the trajectory passing through that point. This 20-year chart will not just be a market chart but a chart of the revival of trust and value in the global economy.