Ark Invest's Valuation of Bitcoin: From $300,000 to $1.5 Million Potential by 2030

According to Ark Invest’s in-depth analysis, Bitcoin could reach a broad range from $300,000 to $1.5 million by 2030. This valuation is based on the digital gold narrative and ongoing institutional adoption studies of the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

David Puell, research trading analyst and associate portfolio manager at Ark Invest in the digital asset division led by Cathie Wood, highlighted a critical shift in the Bitcoin market. “The question is no longer whether you should invest in Bitcoin, but how much Bitcoin you need and which platform is best for you,” Puell said in an exclusive interview.

The Changing Demand Profile: How ETF and Digital Asset Treasury Enhance Bitcoin

A key milestone has been reached as Bitcoin attains institutional maturity, especially following the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the first quarter of 2024. These products—led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC)—have attracted over $50 billion in net inflows over two years.

Digital asset treasury (DAT) strategies, where public companies hold Bitcoin as a primary reserve on their balance sheets, have become another important factor. Together, ETFs and DAT structures account for approximately 12% of the total Bitcoin supply—an amount that exceeded market expectations and became one of the main drivers of price action.

“In previous cycles, most infrastructure was still being built,” Puell explained. “Now, Bitcoin’s valuation focuses on how much to allocate and through which channels, not just whether to invest or not.”

How Much Bitcoin Have Institutions Accumulated and Why It Matters

On-chain data shows a significant change in supply dynamics. Network vibrancy has reached 60% since the first quarter of 2018, meaning roughly 36% of the total Bitcoin supply is effectively locked in by long-term holders. This increase is directly attributable to institutional adoption and DAT initiatives.

Such supply consolidation has profound implications for Bitcoin valuation. When more Bitcoin is locked in institutional hands and less readily available for trading, the relative scarcity can support higher price levels. The Ark model allocates a substantial contribution to the digital gold narrative for the bear case ($300,000) and base case ($710,000), while institutional investment is the primary driver of the bull scenario ($1.5 million).

Lower Volatility Attracts More Conservative Investors

An unnoticed shift is the decline in Bitcoin volatility to its lowest levels in history. In previous bull markets, 30% to 50% drawdowns during the cycle were normal. But since the lowest point in 2022, Bitcoin has experienced drawdowns not exceeding 36%—a remarkable data point indicating market maturation.

This dampened volatility profile directly impacts Bitcoin’s valuation as an asset class. Lower volatility attracts risk-averse investors who previously avoided due to extreme price swings. Softer drawdowns, combined with a more sophisticated investor base strategically accumulating during dips, have leveled price action and shortened recovery periods.

“In the past, many early adopters aggressively took profits at market tops,” Puell said. “Now, a more mature ecosystem with institutional buyers supporting price levels through ETFs and DAT structures is emerging. This is the battle of these two forces in 2026 and 2027.”

Structural Foundations for Long-Term Upside

The macro environment appears supportive for Bitcoin. The end of the US monetary tightening cycle could bring fresh liquidity into the market—a backdrop historically favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin. Puell stated that US liquidity is more influential on Bitcoin price action than global M2, as the US has the largest capital base in the world.

Regulatory developments also contribute to structural tailwinds. Clarity from the Trump administration, growth in staking-related ETF products, and increasing interest at the state level (with Texas leading in Bitcoin mining and reserve initiatives) strengthen the long-term foundation for institutional adoption.

Although a US strategic Bitcoin reserve may not add new demand per se, it will establish a strong base of long-term holders unlikely to sell. This scenario aligns with Ark’s valuation of Bitcoin as digital gold with an expanding role in institutional portfolios.

Another change Ark has observed is the shift of safe-haven demand from Bitcoin to stablecoins, especially in emerging markets. However, this dilution has been heavily offset by stronger-than-expected demand for gold-linked use cases in Ark’s model.

“We remain firm on our long-term valuation targets,” Puell said. “Demand composition has changed, but the core thesis remains solid.”

Ultimately, Ark focuses on a five-year time horizon rather than short-term price calls, arguing that Bitcoin’s maturation into a lower-volatility, institutionally-held asset could be as important as any specific price level. This valuation framework helps understand how Bitcoin could follow a path toward the $1.5 million range by 2030.