Direction Shift: Bitcoin and Gold in the 2026 Offering

In the midst of the global rise in asset values, Bitcoin and gold are following vastly different paths. While gold has surged over 80% during recent periods of high inflation, geopolitical wars, and uncertainty in interest rates, Bitcoin has only increased by 12.82% year-over-year, leaving consumers questioning why they should still buy this digital asset.

The current situation has raised a critical question for the market: if gold and other traditional hard assets are providing better returns, why does Bitcoin remain relevant? CoinDesk asked several Bitcoin advocates to understand their reasoning.

The Role of “Muscle Memory” in Investor Choice

One of the main arguments for the contrasting performance relates to how institutions behave during times of fear and uncertainty. Experts say investors have a natural tendency to revert to familiar and well-known assets.

“During times of uncertainty, institutions tend to retreat to what they know because they often lack the perspective to embrace a true technological shift,” said a senior advisor at Gannett Wealth Advisors. This is called “muscle memory” – the innate inclination of consumers to choose assets they have long used and understood.

However, Bitcoin proponents believe this is only a temporary distraction. “While gold has a long history, Bitcoin has proven itself as technically resilient at the protocol level for over fifteen years,” added the expert. The long-term expectation is a “mean reversion” where Bitcoin catches up to gold once the market recognizes that digital scarcity is more effective than physical inheritance.

The Real Story: Asset Transfer, Not Interest

A critical detail often overlooked by many observers is the difference between “lack of demand” and “change in supply distribution.”

According to the Chief Investment Officer of Risk Dimensions, “This is not a demand problem; it’s a supply distribution event. There are huge inflows into institutional ETFs, but they are not raising prices – they are simply absorbing the supply that a decade of early adopters have thrown into the market.”

On-chain data research supports this view. “We are witnessing a transfer of ownership, not a failure of interest,” he said. Institutional adoption continues to grow – the U.S.-listed spot XRP ETF has gained $91.72 million in net inflows this month, reflecting broader interest in crypto assets despite Bitcoin’s relative underperformance.

The Concept of “Digital Gold” in the Face of Reality

An unusual situation is that both gold bugs and Bitcoin maximalists use almost the same argument: limited supply, money printing, inflation, war, and chaos. But their understanding of the asset differs critically.

“I believe gold is the reserve asset for the real world, and Bitcoin for the digital world,” said ByteTree’s CIO. “The problems today are in the real world. Bitcoin is not failing; it is simply declining along with internet stocks, which have always been deeply correlated since its inception.”

This observation suggests a broader context: Bitcoin continues to grow as an asset class, but current market sentiment is more favorable toward traditional inflation hedges like gold and other precious metals.

The Delayed Rotation: When Will Capital Return?

While many investors are expecting a “delayed rotation” that will bring capital from traditional hard assets into Bitcoin, the timing remains unclear.

“The narrative of ‘digital gold’ hasn’t really emerged until it’s tested in the real world,” said the CEO of Jacobi Asset Management. “Bitcoin hasn’t behaved like a true hedge against inflation or a safe haven during geopolitical stress and financial uncertainty. Instead, gold and silver were the big winners in 2025.”

However, a longer-term perspective offers hope for Bitcoin bulls. “There has long been comfort in the broad market for precious metals that Bitcoin has yet to achieve,” he added. “I still believe we will see a delayed rotation into Bitcoin, but for now, investors are attracted to what they know and trust.”

Changing Demand Landscape for Bitcoin

One significant market shift is the need for a new “demand driver” for Bitcoin, as the traditional inflation hedge narrative has become less effective.

“Bitcoin has primarily been an inflation hedge over the past half-decade, but with deflation likely approaching, Bitcoin will need to find other demand sources to continue increasing the asset,” said the Chairman and CEO of ProCap Financial. “I remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s future prospects, but I recognize that macro environments and market participants are changing rapidly.”

Research into ecosystem development shows positive indicators, especially in the growth of non-financial use cases and increasing Bitcoin network adoption.

The Contradictory Narrative: Permanent Solution vs. Temporary Hedge

While most investors see Bitcoin as a temporary hedge, some deeper analysts view it as a fundamental solution to the inflation problem.

“The idea of ‘disappointing digital gold’ is premature noise,” said the CEO of Musquet. “The fixed supply and network growth of Bitcoin deliver substantial gains compared to inflation and, in fact, outperform gold over many years. Bitcoin is now emerging as a native asset in the internet’s financial ecosystem – it’s not just a ‘hedge’ against inflation; it’s a permanent solution.”

This perspective reflects a deeper understanding of how Bitcoin differs from traditional inflation hedges. “Gold and other traditional inflation assets enjoy their moment, but ultimately, Bitcoin lives longer and surpasses them all.”

Bitcoin’s Moment: When Will the Shift Happen?

Bitcoin’s relative underperformance does not mean it is a failing asset. Instead, it could be positioning itself ahead of a larger market rotation.

“Think of the rally in precious metals as driven by something you might call ‘muscle memory,’” said a Bitwise analyst. “During times of uncertainty, investors first turn to familiar assets – and gold and silver seem to be that now.”

But reality is more complex. “Bitcoin is still considered a risky asset, even though it has better store-of-value characteristics than gold. But I am somewhat confident that Bitcoin’s price will start rising when traditional hard assets reach inflated levels and capital begins shifting toward more attractive assets like Bitcoin.”

Based on the relative Mayer multiple between Bitcoin and gold, Bitcoin is at a price level last seen in 2022. There is also a significant decline in Bitcoin’s price relative to macroeconomic conditions and the global money supply, which is likely to increase further in the coming months.

The Broader Context: Divergent Action but Same Goal

While Bitcoin and gold show contrasting price actions, their fundamental purpose is the same: to serve as stores of value and protection against currency debasement. The current situation does not indicate a permanent replacement of Bitcoin but a temporary divergence driven by investor behavior and market conditions.

Experts continue to believe that digital assets will play a role in the broader investment landscape. The key is understanding that each asset class has unique advantages depending on market environment and investor sentiment.

Ultimately, the contrasting performance could set the stage for Bitcoin’s next market cycle, especially if traditional hard assets reach saturation points and capital begins to rotate back into the digital ecosystem.