The probability of a drop in Bitcoin rises as geopolitical tensions increase

Bitcoin faces a growing uncertainty scenario marked by a significant probability of new declines. Options traders on major decentralized platforms are processing this market concern, reflected in bearish expectations that surprise many investors.

The market assigns a 30% probability to a crash toward US$80,000

Analysis of data from Derive.xyz and Deribit, the two most relevant options platforms, shows a clear trend: there is a 30% chance that bitcoin falls below US$80,000 before the end of June. This market prediction, derived from the aggregated behavior of thousands of traders, suggests expectations of a significant correction in the coming months.

Bitcoin is currently trading around US$88,120, reflecting a 2.20% loss in the last 24 hours. Although the price remains distant from the US$95,000 level briefly reached in early 2026, the probability of an additional decline toward US$80,000 would indicate an even deeper movement in the price.

Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.xyz, explained to CoinDesk that “options markets show a clear downward bias, with a 30% chance that BTC falls below US$80,000 by June 26, compared to just a 19% chance of rising above US$120,000 during the same period.” This imbalance in expectations reveals short-term pessimism.

How options work and why they reveal market sentiment

Options are derivative instruments that allow traders to bet on price movements without directly owning the cryptocurrency. There are two main types: call options, which profit if the price rises above a predetermined level, and put options, which are profitable if the price falls.

Investors pay a premium to access these contracts. The concentration of open interest in put options with strike prices between US$75,000 and US$80,000 on both platforms indicates that a significant part of the market expects further declines. The implied probability derived from these market prices is what reveals that 30% chance of a downward break.

Elevated geopolitical risks increase volatility probability

International tensions are playing a central role in this market pessimism. The threats from President Donald Trump to impose a 10% tariff on imports from ten European nations, in the context of his controversial plan regarding Greenland, have created an environment of global economic uncertainty.

Bitcoin has experienced similar movements in response to trade policy shocks in the past. In April 2025, when Trump implemented broad tariffs, bitcoin fell to US$75,000. Dawson noted that “the increase in geopolitical tensions between the United States and Europe—particularly around Greenland—raises the risk of regime change toward a higher volatility environment, a dynamic not fully reflected in spot prices.”

This observation suggests that options traders anticipate additional volatility that may not be fully priced into current bitcoin prices.

Concentrated sell positions: where the market is heading

The distribution of open interest in put options is particularly revealing. On Derive.xyz and Deribit, there is a significant concentration of contracts with strike prices in the US$75,000 to US$80,000 range. This grouping implies that many traders anticipate a decline toward levels around US$70,000.

Reaching those prices would bring bitcoin to its lowest since April 2025, marking a roughly 20% retreat from current levels. The combined probability of multiple bearish scenarios reinforces the feeling that the options market is signaling structural weakness in the short term.

What does this mean for investors?

The implied probability in options markets is not a certainty but an aggregation of expectations from thousands of traders. The 30% chance of a decline means there is a 70% chance that bitcoin remains above US$80,000 by the end of June. However, the clear bias toward bearish positions suggests that correction risks deserve consideration in investment strategies.

The confluence of geopolitical factors, volatility expectations, and concentration of sell positions on major options platforms paints a market picture where the probability of adverse movements is material. For bitcoin traders, these derivatives market indicators offer important signals about sentiment and risk expectations in the coming months.