Beware of Double Risks: Washout and Deep Drop! Gold Trading Guide for Next Week

In recent days, the gold market has been destined to be recorded in the history of precious metal trading. Many people feel that this plunge came suddenly, but from the perspective of market logic and policy trends, this sharp decline was foreshadowed long ago and is not an accidental black swan event. Starting from a unilateral rally around the 4620 level, reaching a high near the 5600 mark before quickly plunging, and then falling back to around 4682 within just two days.

Next week's market will continue the core pattern of "wide-range oscillation and key level battles," with focus on the effective突破 of support and resistance levels.

On Monday, pay close attention to the testing of key zones: the primary target for a short-term rebound is the 5000 integer level. If the price can quickly break above and stabilize, there is potential for a correction towards 5100; conversely, if it cannot hold above 4900 on Monday and the trend remains weak, extreme risks of a "sharp rally followed by a deep decline" must be guarded against to avoid being caught again.

Support levels should be defended with a step-by-step strategy: the core supports below are 4600, 4500, and 4000. If support at 4600 is broken, the market will further test the 4500 key level; if 4500 cannot hold, the 4000 level will become the next important line of defense.

Washout risks must be closely monitored: recent market volatility is intense, and major players are likely to repeatedly test support strength through washout actions. It is important to note that if the price quickly drops to 4500 and then stabilizes, this could become a short-term good window for low-position buying, so avoid blindly shorting.

From the 12-hour cycle trend structure, the mid-term upward logic for gold remains intact. Next month’s market can be projected into two scenarios, balancing optimism and caution:

1. If the correction stabilizes and the rally resumes: If the price stabilizes above key support after recent correction, there is still hope to target the 5600-6000 range. The correction phase is actually a window for medium-term long positions, which can be strategically laid out around support levels, leveraging rolling operations to amplify gains.

2. If the downtrend continues: If the price weakens further next month, focus on the support strength at 4500. Once this level is broken, the market will further decline toward the 4000 mark. In this case, defensive strategies should be prioritized, avoiding blind bottom-fishing, and patiently waiting for clear stabilization signals.

Next week’s short-term trading ideas: Use key levels as core anchors. For positions above 5000, consider a bullish bias; below 4600, shift to a bearish approach. Every trade must have strict stop-loss settings, avoiding chasing highs or selling lows, to mitigate risks from extreme volatility.

Medium to long-term trading ideas for next month: Maintain the core logic of "buying on dips." If the price retraces to the 4500-4600 zone and shows clear stabilization signals, gradually build medium-term long positions, targeting the 5600-6000 range, and flexibly manage take-profit timing.