#加密市场隔夜V型震荡 Volatile Balance After the Crash! February 4 BTC Market Analysis

The market is seeking equilibrium amid extremely low price levels and chaotic macroeconomic conditions. Every sharp rise and fall resonates with macroeconomic trends, capital flows, and human emotions. After several days of intense selling, the cryptocurrency market is finally attempting to find some balance in this turbulent macro environment. As of the morning of February 4, Bitcoin is trading at $75,800, down 3.78% in 24 hours, with a daily low of $72,877 — the lowest since November 6, 2024! Over the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the network reached $279 million, with longs accounting for over 60%, indicating that market panic has yet to be effectively alleviated.
Today’s market sentiment index is 13, indicating “Extreme Fear.” Panic on social media and data from derivatives markets confirm forced liquidations of leveraged positions. This subdued fear and greed index, negative financing rates, and high liquidation rates typically suggest persistent selling pressure.
Data shows that in the past 24 hours, 165,781 traders were liquidated, totaling $516 million, with $373 million in long liquidations and $144 million in short liquidations. Market liquidity has become noticeably thin, allowing relatively small buy and sell orders to trigger sharp price swings, which can then lead to larger forced liquidations, creating a vicious cycle.
The internal structural issues within the market form a complex and fragile situation. On the macro and regulatory fronts, multiple uncertainties are weighing down market sentiment.
Concerns persist over Trump’s nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Woor, with a hawkish stance.
The “blurred” economic outlook worsens the situation.
Due to a partial government shutdown, the key US January non-farm employment report has been delayed. The absence of this critical economic data removes an important basis for assessing the health of the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s policy direction, further increasing uncertainty.
Regulatory deadlock is also worrisome.
Although the White House has convened meetings with crypto companies, major banks, and government officials to push stalled legislation, no progress has been made on the core issue of stablecoin regulation. Banks strongly oppose stablecoin issuers offering yield-bearing products, while the crypto industry argues that such products are vital for competitiveness.
Bitcoin Price Analysis and Forecast
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin shows signs of “oversold rebound fatigue.” Yesterday’s daily candle closed with a long lower shadow, confirming strong support around $74,500. This level also coincides with the technical low point of the 2025 cycle, indicating strong support.
Key support levels: The core support zone is $74,500–$75,000, which was critical for yesterday’s rebound; secondary support is at $72,800 — the intraday low today. If broken, it could trigger a deeper correction toward the $70,000–$72,000 range; ultimate support is at the psychological $70,000 mark. Falling below this could set a new nearly one-year low and potentially trigger a new wave of selling.
Resistance levels: Short-term resistance is in the $77,000–$77,500 range, serving as the key barrier for today’s rebound and the lifeline for bulls and bears alike; medium-term resistance is near the psychological $79,500–$80,000 level, requiring increased volume to break through and ease short-term weakness; long-term resistance is at $82,000. Until this level is surpassed, the downtrend remains intact. Technical indicators show a four-hour MACD golden cross forming, RSI rebounding from oversold levels (28) to 45, but the hourly RSI is approaching 60, so caution is advised against short-term overbought corrections. Overall, the trend remains within a downward trajectory, with the four-hour weak decline pattern unchanged. The current rebound is merely a technical oversold correction, not a trend reversal.
Today’s Trading Strategy
In the current market environment, caution is paramount. Here are specific strategies for February 4:
Long Position Strategy: Enter a small position (10–15%) on a pullback to $75,000–$75,500, with a stop-loss below $74,500, and target $77,000–$77,500. Take profit immediately upon reaching the target.
Short Position Strategy: Enter a small position (10–15%) on a rebound to $77,300–$77,800, with a stop-loss above $78,000, and target $75,000–$74,500. Consider adding slightly if support breaks.
Core Risk Management Tips: Market volatility is high today. All contract trades must set stop-losses, with total position sizes limited to 30%. High leverage (recommend no more than 5x) is strictly prohibited. If BTC drops below $74,500, close all long positions and stay on the sidelines; avoid blindly bottom-fishing.
For spot investors, dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is recommended—invest a fixed amount regularly to average down the cost of long-term holdings.
Although Bitcoin has fallen to around $75,000, excessive bearishness is unwise. As market liquidity improves and policy optimism persists, the probability of deep price declines diminishes. This may extend the duration of the C wave correction, trading time for space.
As the market attempts to build balance at this level, any macroeconomic data releases (such as delayed non-farm reports) or unexpected regulatory developments could serve as catalysts to break the current deadlock. Investors should closely monitor liquidity recovery and whether effective support can be established at this level.
Do you think Bitcoin can hold the key support at $74,500? Is the current market a good bottoming opportunity or just a downtrend continuation? Share your views and trading strategies in the comments.