Market conditions have stabilized somewhat, with the implied volatility (IV) of the main maturities showing a significant decline. However, the actual volatility (RV) over the past week remains relatively high, resulting in a record average decrease of 45% in the one-week VRP.
Looking at the specific data, it has dropped from last week's +20% level to the current -25% level, a relatively rare phenomenon. This indicates that the market is rapidly reducing its volatility expectations, perhaps too quickly, as Bitcoin's volatility tends to be highly clustered. Institutions are somewhat overly optimistic about the market, and such recklessness could leave them very passive if a second wave of decline occurs. The irrationality in the options market has clearly increased, and institutions have been caught off guard by recent market movements. Historically, such situations often indicate that the bottom has not yet been reached.
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Market conditions have stabilized somewhat, with the implied volatility (IV) of the main maturities showing a significant decline. However, the actual volatility (RV) over the past week remains relatively high, resulting in a record average decrease of 45% in the one-week VRP.
Looking at the specific data, it has dropped from last week's +20% level to the current -25% level, a relatively rare phenomenon.
This indicates that the market is rapidly reducing its volatility expectations, perhaps too quickly, as Bitcoin's volatility tends to be highly clustered. Institutions are somewhat overly optimistic about the market, and such recklessness could leave them very passive if a second wave of decline occurs.
The irrationality in the options market has clearly increased, and institutions have been caught off guard by recent market movements. Historically, such situations often indicate that the bottom has not yet been reached.