Bitcoin Bear Drop Signals Deeper Weakness Ahead

Bitcoin is facing intense selling pressure as a major bear move unfolds below critical support zones. After a sharp drop that pushed BTC down to around $77,600 in recent sessions, the market is now testing levels last seen ten months ago. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades near $67.13K (+1.04% in 24 hours), but technical and on-chain signals suggest this latest bounce could be temporary relief in a larger downtrend.

Price Drop Accelerates Below Key Support

The recent drop has wiped out several important bull market levels, including the $80,000 support zone that historically acted as the true market mean. With BTC unable to sustain a recovery above this critical barrier, sellers have maintained control. Traders are now monitoring even deeper liquidity zones—$74,400 represents the next major target, while some analysts point to sub-$50,000 levels if the bear structure continues to unfold according to historical patterns.

Technical Indicators Flash Bear Market Warning

One of the most significant warnings comes from Bitcoin breaking below its 21-week exponential moving average (EMA)—a technical threshold historically associated with the onset of major bear market phases. According to analysis from Rekt Capital, the current price action mirrors previous bear cycles almost precisely. Since this latest EMA crossover, BTC has already declined approximately 17%, sliding from $90,000 down to current levels. Notably, the same technical setup appeared in April 2022, which preceded an extended bear market decline lasting months.

On-Chain Metrics Confirm Extended Downtrend

Beyond technical analysis, chain data paints a cautious picture. CryptoQuant’s latest research shows Bitcoin is now trading below the realized price of holders who purchased 12-18 months ago. When BTC breaks below this realized cost basis and remains underwater, it typically signals a shift from normal market corrections into more structural bear regimes. Currently, realized price is acting as overhead resistance—meaning each rally attempt may encounter selling pressure as underwater holders look to exit at breakeven. This combination of weakness below realized cost, negative profitability metrics, and slowing on-chain growth has historically aligned with prolonged bearish phases.

CME Gap Could Offer Brief Relief

Despite the bear bias, some traders are eyeing a CME futures gap near $84,000 as a potential short-term magnetic level. CME gaps often attract price action, so a temporary bounce toward that zone is possible in the coming weeks. However, unless BTC reclaims major support and reverses the broader bear structure, any recovery is likely to be met with fresh selling and wouldn’t change the intermediate outlook.

The Bigger Picture

Bitcoin’s bear drop has created a multi-layered warning system: price structure is breaking, technical levels are failing, and on-chain fundamentals are shifting negative. While a short-term relief rally toward $84,000 remains possible, the broader bear narrative remains intact. If patterns repeat, deeper levels and even sub-$50,000 targets are on the table. Proceed with caution and manage risk accordingly.