$BTC

As Bitcoin peaks get smaller over the years, what should we understand?
In 2013, Bitcoin’s market cap was small. The amount of money (energy) needed to 10x it was like a drop in the ocean. Now Bitcoin is a trillion dollar asset. To increase its price by 100% (make it 2x), it takes trillions of dollars of fresh inflows. Smaller peaks show that the asset has shifted from a speculative toy to a global macro asset. It’s become harder to even 2x, but at the same time, it’s also much harder for it to drop 30% in a single day.
Based on this picture, Bitcoin is no longer a get rich ticket, it’s on the path to becoming a store of value. Instead of those old to the moon charts, we may see a slower but steadier staircase structure, more like gold.
BTC has moved into the Market Adoption phase. I think it will act more mature, more predictable, and more indexed to global liquidity.
The chart is saying: the party has turned into an elite cocktail, and the people getting drunk and breaking tables got kicked out.
In this framework, if it get the combination of failing to make a new high as the cycle matures plus breaking below key supports, then the risk increases.