What does the structural reversal of TGE imply? A re-interpretation of the dialectic between liabilities and assets from an investment perspective

When we invest in a project’s token, what are we actually investing in? The answer to this question is undergoing the most profound paradigm shift in the crypto market. Once, TGE (Token Generation Event) represented the endpoint of a project, but that logic is now experiencing a structural reversal—it signifies that, for investors, the criteria for selection are shifting from “valuation discovery” to “value discovery.”

The 2026 TGE Boom: How Regulatory Certainty Will Change Investment Pace

Less than two months into 2026, the market is already feeling a wave of intensive TGE issuances. Based on regulatory details (US SEC policy clarifications, EU MiCA coming into effect) and capital market cycle forecasts, 2026 is highly likely to become a “breakout year” for TGE explosions.

What does this change mean for investors? First, it clarifies the investment window. Increased regulatory certainty, the maturity of institutional products like ETFs and futures—all these provide pathways for institutional capital to enter. Many projects locked in early investors by the end of 2025, while others have deliberately delayed to 2026, signaling strong market expectations for that year.

Market data estimates suggest the number of TGEs in 2026 could grow by 15%-30% compared to 2025. But this does not mean opportunities are doubled—in fact, it requires investors to make more refined selections amid an “explosive supply” environment.

From “Blindly Chasing Highs” to “Value Discrimination”: Why the Old Approach Is Failing

The old logic of TGE investing was simple: new tokens launch → market attention → price surge → cash out. But in the past two cycles, this path has been failing.

What does this mean? In short, the “Token first, then product” approach is no longer effective. During previous cycles, public chains could quickly garner attention and liquidity through tokens and grand narratives, but now:

• Narratives must be backed by real products: Liquidity no longer blindly follows narratives. Projects without product-market fit (PMF) are more like expensive debt than assets. For investors, this means being able to assess whether a project has already identified genuine user needs before the TGE.

• Cold-start opportunities within the same track are diminishing: Token-based cold starts now seem effective only for trailblazers in a given sector. For followers, attention will be quickly diluted, and liquidity won’t multiply. Take the Perp DEX sector as an example—Hyperliquid stands out, but the investment logic for subsequent projects has changed entirely.

• Misalignment between exchange goals and project objectives: Exchanges primarily earn transaction fees and pursue listing as many assets as possible; long-term builders seek deep liquidity. This means tokens bought may be listed easily but can also face liquidity drying up.

What Does TGE Mean Now: From Marketing Cost to Stress Testing

From a micro-investment perspective, the essence of TGE has fundamentally changed.

In the past, TGE was a marketing activity where benefits outweighed costs:

• Cost side: Airdrop pressures, CEX commissions, predictable sell pressure
• Benefit side: Market attention, brand reputation, early user acquisition

But now, this equation has reversed:

• Market attention is more dispersed, increasing branding costs
• “Early users” no longer care about the product—they care about token liquidity, heavily relying on incentives
• This means the costs of TGE are rising while the benefits are decreasing

For investors, the takeaway is: More and more TGEs are essentially becoming fundraising tools rather than growth tools. When the cost of a TGE exceeds its benefits, team energy and morale are often drained by internal conflicts, which directly impacts product iteration speed after launch.

How Investors Can Identify Genuine Opportunities in a “Harsh Competition Year”

2026 may see a dual increase in both the quantity and quality of TGEs, but this “improvement” will come with significant volatility. In such an environment, what should investors focus on?

First, is there a consensus basis behind the narrative? Don’t get overly obsessed with technical parameters (TPS, ZK-rollups, etc.), but ask: what is the community consensus around this project? Is it solving a real pain point or just a pseudo-need? This requires deep engagement with the project’s seed community rather than being led solely by influencers.

Second, the importance of the first 100 real users surpasses that of the first 100 token holders. Many technical communities have demonstrated this—early users often provide the most genuine feedback, which directly determines whether the project has achieved PMF. Investors should be able to see these signals before the TGE.

Third, evaluate the project’s sustainability strategy. Most projects fail after the “exhaustion of listing hype.” Good projects will reserve marketing resources, turn “expectation-driven” into “event-driven,” build a real ecosystem through grants and other programs, and maintain deep liquidity over the long term. This means assessing the project’s 12-24 month post-TGE plan, not just its launch day performance.

Fourth, the ability of the economic model to maintain dynamic balance. Reasonable unlocking mechanisms can reduce initial sell pressure; real revenue generated by the product can be used for buybacks, supporting value rather than relying on emotional speculation. These are signs of a project’s long-term viability.

Investment Survival Rules for 2026: Value Reversion or Bubble Deepening

A harsh reality is that many TGE failures are not due to poor products or team credentials but stem from a lack of risk resistance to market scrutiny, peer competition, and narrative shifts—teams rushing to launch without adequate preparation for open market competition.

What does this mean for investors?

In 2026, the market is likely to fall into a cycle of “intensive TGE issuance → value volatility and collapse → market rebalancing and renewal.” Blindly chasing highs will ultimately lead to liquidity crises.

But, on the flip side, this process of value reversion is essentially market self-purification. Tokens are no longer synonymous with growth, and narratives cannot generate value out of thin air. A successful TGE’s true measure is not the initial volatility but:

1. Whether the team has the capacity to clear “liabilities” before the TGE—i.e., has already found a PMF that can generate sustainable cash flow or real users
2. Whether the project has a clear roadmap and verifiable execution ability—not just vague narratives
3. Whether the tokens obtained by investors genuinely represent claims on future cash flows—not merely speculative chips

Investment Insights: What Does Structural Reversal Mean?

Ultimately, the structural reversal of TGE signifies a profound change: from “guess valuation” to “calculate value.”

For investors, this means shifting from speculation to investment mindset. In a year of “explosive supply” but “selective demand” like 2026, projects that survive will typically feature: validated products, established communities, sound economic models, and shared narratives.

Projects still telling big stories before TGE and only starting product development afterward will find their tokens increasingly difficult to sustain premiums. This implies a shift in opportunities—from chasing price surges to tracking genuine growth; from betting on narratives to verifying products.

This transformation is brutal but also opens fertile ground for long-term believers. During the bubble’s self-purification, true value hotspots will emerge.