tony jones and the Case for Gold in 2026: When Tech Giants Lose Their Appeal

The billionaire investment landscape has shifted dramatically, with seasoned money managers like tony jones making bold portfolio moves that signal deeper concerns about economic stability. As the manager of Tudor Investment Corporation—a fund overseeing more than $83 billion in assets—tony jones has spent the last 46 years navigating market cycles with a philosophy that prizes flexibility. His most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission for the third quarter of 2025 tells a revealing story: the hedge fund has trimmed positions in tech powerhouses Apple and Alphabet while simultaneously increasing its holdings in the SPDR Gold ETF by 49%. This pivot isn’t merely a tactical adjustment; it reflects a calculated bet on precious metals as geopolitical and fiscal headwinds intensify.

The Economic Fog That’s Driving Portfolio Realignments

The backdrop for tony jones’s strategic repositioning centers on fiscal realities that extend beyond market sentiment. The U.S. government ran a budget deficit of $1.8 trillion during fiscal year 2025, which ended September 30, and has accumulated a national debt that recently crossed $38.5 trillion. These figures underpin a fundamental concern: when governments spend beyond their means, they typically resort to one primary mechanism to manage the debt burden—printing additional money. Throughout history, this pattern has consistently devalued paper currencies while simultaneously enhancing the appeal of hard assets that cannot be created at will.

During a 2024 interview with Fortune, tony jones articulated this exact concern, recommending that investors purchase gold due to the U.S. government’s unsustainable fiscal trajectory. Given that the government is projected to run another trillion-dollar deficit in fiscal 2026, the conditions that fueled last year’s precious metals rally show no signs of abating. The SPDR Gold ETF soared 64% during 2025 alone and has already climbed above 20% in early 2026, attracting investors seeking protection against currency depreciation and inflation.

Why Precious Metals Have Reclaimed Their Luster

Gold has functioned as humanity’s store of value for millennia, a status rooted fundamentally in scarcity. Throughout all of recorded history, only 216,265 tons of gold have been extracted from the Earth—a negligible figure when compared to 1.7 million tons of silver or billions of tons of commodities like coal and iron ore. Unlike industrial metals, gold derives its value almost entirely from its role as an inflation hedge rather than from manufacturing applications, which remain limited due to its prohibitively high cost.

The connection between currency debasement and gold’s appreciation becomes apparent when examining the post-1971 era. Before President Nixon ended the Bretton Woods system five decades ago, the gold standard constrained government spending by requiring dollar-backing with equivalent physical reserves. This mechanism effectively limited inflation and maintained public confidence in currency values. Since abandoning this constraint, the U.S. dollar has shed approximately 90% of its purchasing power, a decline that has accelerated gold’s ascent in nominal dollar terms. The yellow metal recently surpassed $5,000 per ounce for the first time in recorded history—a milestone that reflects not only gold’s intrinsic value but also the persistent erosion of fiat currency.

The Portfolio Reality: Why tony jones Is Making This Bet

Smart money managers recognize that annual returns of 64%—as gold delivered in 2025—rarely persist over extended periods. Historically, gold has appreciated at an average rate of approximately 8% per year over the past three decades, trailing the S&P 500’s average return of 10.7%. Moreover, the yellow metal experienced virtually zero appreciation during the decade spanning 2011 to 2020, a period when equity markets more than doubled in value. The current rally represents an exceptional moment rather than a new baseline.

Despite this cautious assessment, tony jones and other institutional investors continue accumulating gold positions because they recognize that the underlying catalysts—massive government deficits and mounting political uncertainty—are unlikely to dissipate in the near term. His 49% increase in SPDR Gold ETF holdings signals conviction that economic conditions warrant hedging, even if subsequent returns prove more moderate than 2025’s exceptional performance.

Practical Considerations for Individual Investors

The SPDR Gold ETF offers individual investors a vehicle far more practical than purchasing and storing physical bullion. The fund maintains $172 billion in physical gold reserves, ensuring that its price movements accurately track spot gold prices without the complications of storage and insurance. However, investors should note that the fund carries an annual expense ratio of 0.4%—meaning a $10,000 investment would incur $40 in yearly management fees. While this fee structure remains substantially cheaper than physically securing and insuring equivalent bullion, it represents a subtle but meaningful drag on returns over time.

Charting a Path Forward for 2026

The prevailing fiscal environment suggests that gold’s appeal will remain intact throughout 2026, supported by continued deficit spending and economic anxieties. Yet investors must temper expectations; the extraordinary returns of 2025 likely represent a peak rather than a sustainable annual pace. Rather than concentrating a disproportionate share of assets in gold, following tony jones’s measured approach of incremental position-building while maintaining substantial equity exposure presents a more balanced risk framework.

The core insight that tony jones’s recent portfolio adjustments convey is neither bearish on stocks nor blindly bullish on gold, but rather pragmatically attentive to the need for diversification when fiscal uncertainties mount. Maintaining modest gold positions as a portfolio stabilizer—perhaps 5-10% of total holdings—aligns with both his positioning and the historical data suggesting that precious metals deserve a permanent place alongside traditional equity allocations, even if the exceptional gains of 2025 prove difficult to replicate in the coming year.