Wheat Weakness Spreads Across 1/4 Index Futures Complex

The wheat complex extended its downward momentum on Monday, pressured by broad-based dollar strength that elevated the US dollar index by $0.586. This currency headwind cascaded through all major wheat contracts, with Chicago SRW futures posting losses of 10 to 11½ cents, while KC HRW futures declined 9 to 10¼ cents, and Minneapolis spring wheat retreated 9 to 10 cents during the session.

Dollar Rally Weighs on Weekly Export Performance

Recent export inspection data reveals the market’s struggle amid currency appreciation. Weekly wheat shipments totaled 326,828 MT during the period ending January 29, representing a 13.76% decline from the previous week. However, the year-over-year comparison tells a different story, with current shipments running 29.11% ahead of the same week last year, signaling sustained underlying demand despite the recent pullback.

Mexico led as the primary export destination, receiving 60,886 MT of wheat, followed by Taiwan with 55,702 MT and Malaysia with 55,630 MT. Marketing year shipments have accumulated 16.69 MMT to date, up 18.61% compared to the prior year at this juncture, underscoring continued export demand despite the 1/4 index weakness visible in recent daily trades.

Traders Reassess Positions Following Price Decline

Commitment of Traders data from Friday revealed significant position adjustments among managed money traders in Chicago wheat futures and options as of January 27. Specifically, managed money reduced their net short position by 15,957 contracts, bringing their total short exposure down to 94,743 contracts. In Kansas City wheat, speculative traders similarly trimmed their net short position by 2,689 contracts to 10,329 contracts, suggesting a cautious reassessment of directional bets on further weakness.

International Buying Interest Surfaces

Despite price pressure, international buyers remained engaged. Taiwan executed a sizeable tender purchase of 106,350 MT of US wheat during late-week trading, indicating that even amid the current downturn, competitive US pricing continues attracting offshore demand.

Across-the-Board Price Weakness on 1/4 Futures Timeline

The March 2026 CBOT wheat contract closed at $5.26½, down 11½ cents, while the May 2026 contract settled at $5.35½, declining 10½ cents. In Kansas City, March KCBT wheat fell 10¼ cents to $5.34½, and May KCBT wheat dropped 9½ cents to $5.45½. Minneapolis grain exchange contracts similarly posted losses, with March MIAX wheat down 9¾ cents at $5.68½ and May MIAX wheat declining 9¼ cents to close at $5.82¼. The uniform weakness across all three 1/4 index wheat complexes underscores broad-based selling pressure affecting the entire market structure.