#ETH多空对决

Bitcoin and Ethereum finally showed some strength today, boosted by the positive news that the Bank of Japan may slow down its rate hikes. Bitcoin surged over 2000 points in a short period, while Ethereum rebounded by over 100 points. However, the market soon fell back into a stalemate, especially for ETH, as bulls and bears engaged in a fierce battle! Recently, although whales have been retreating, accumulation traders bought 2.5 million coins against the trend in February. What’s next for the market—up or down? Small investor believes it’s still likely to decline.

👉 Why did the surge happen today?

There has been a lot of market news recently, mostly bearish, which has suppressed the bulls. Today’s news from Japan regarding rate hikes caused a ripple effect, energizing the bullish side. Recently, Japanese Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide expressed clear concerns about the Bank of Japan’s potential further rate hikes during a meeting with BOJ Governor Ueda Haruhiko. Compared to their meeting in November last year, the Prime Minister’s stance is considered more assertive. This political statement directly impacted market expectations, dampening bets on further tightening by the central bank. This news is positive for risk assets, leading to a broad rally in Asian stock markets. As a highly volatile asset, Bitcoin naturally followed the surge.

🙋 Will the current rebound end here?

So, has this rebound finished? Will the market go up or down next? I believe that the current rise, driven by positive news, has already reached a sufficient level. The current market is a rebound, not a reversal, so the main strategy should still be to short.

✅ From a technical perspective, Ethereum’s daily chart shows a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern, which has become a focus of recent market attention. This structure typically reflects a balance between buyers and sellers rather than a one-sided trend. When the price breaks below the triangle’s lower support line, it previously rebounded to test that level but was rejected, confirming a shift from support to resistance. Although there has been a recent rebound, the price remains below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating the overall trend has shifted to a correction rather than a pause. The RSI on the daily chart is close to 33, below the neutral level of 50, further confirming a seller-dominated market. From the daily chart, the price is constrained by the MA10, which exerts some resistance above; on the 4-hour chart, the MA30 provides clear resistance, making the upward movement difficult.

✅ From a news perspective, first, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin has recently accelerated ETH selling. Such changes in holdings by senior executives often attract market attention and may reflect developers’ outlook on the market or adjustments in capital allocation. Although the scale is small, in a fragile market environment, the founder’s selling can influence sentiment. Second, the Trump administration’s escalating tariffs and ongoing tensions between the US and Iran continue to ferment, with funds flowing into traditional safe-haven assets like gold. Third, since the beginning of this year, gold and Bitcoin have moved in opposite directions, revealing that Bitcoin is no longer “digital gold” but has become a risk asset. Under unfavorable macro news, a price decline seems inevitable.

📈 Important levels to watch

✅ Currently, the core consolidation range is between 1800 and 1940. Breaking this range will signal a directional move.

✅ Resistance levels: First resistance at 1940 (daily MA10)

Second resistance at 2040 (weekly MA5)

✅ Support levels: First support at 1845

Second support at 1797

Third support at 1740

📌 Core ideas and recommendations

1. Medium-term strategy is mainly to short; current position can be lightly shorted with a stop loss at 1950.

2. Quick in-and-out at key levels: Experienced short-term traders can try long positions near key support at 1,845$, or observe for signs of stagnation near key resistance at 1,950$. But remember, this is a short-term game—avoid overtrading and set clear take-profit and stop-loss levels.

3. Wait for confirmation on the right side, rather than guessing bottoms on the left. Some investors may be eager to “buy the dip” due to today’s rebound.