#美伊局势影响 The oil tanker停靠霍尔木兹海峡, Wall Street traders collectively shivered.

On Monday’s open, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield shot up like a rocket, jumping 10 basis points in one go to 4.03%. This was the biggest single-day increase since October last year. The bond market folks are always the most sensitive—they’re not smelling gunpowder, but the burnt smell of inflation reigniting.
Oil prices surged over 6% in response, and expectations for rate cuts were pushed back by three months. Traders now bet that seeing the first rate cut in September would be good, and the third one in 2026? Don’t even think about it.
Yellen, speaking plainly at a shipping conference, said the Fed is now “more inclined to hold steady.” Translated, that means—those policy tools they have are to be used sparingly.
Inflation is still hovering around 3%, a full percentage point above the 2% target. Just the tariffs from the Trump era contributed about 0.5% of that. What worries the Fed even more are psychological expectations: if the market truly believes “3% is the new normal,” then things could get complicated.

JPMorgan’s Dimon gave an analogy, saying inflation is like that skunk at the party—it doesn’t start a riot right away, but the smell drifts in, and everyone eventually has to leave. Short-term conflicts might have limited impact on oil prices, but no one knows how long this fight will last.
The stock market’s reaction is quite interesting. The S&P 500 dropped over 1% intraday but managed to recover by close. Airline stocks turned downward, while energy and defense sectors held steady. Funds are reordering—growth stocks are too sensitive to interest rates; the higher the rates stay, the more their valuations shrink.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, didn’t fall but rose, jumping back to $69,000 within a day. Gold also touched above $5,300. The safe-haven logic remains, and hard assets are still the way to go. But seasoned crypto players know that the 2022 bear market was a warning—when liquidity tightens, all beliefs get discounted. Now that rate cut expectations are fading, how long risk appetite can hold in the coming months is anyone’s guess.
Not everyone is pessimistic. Morgan Stanley’s Wilson believes that as long as oil prices don’t spiral out of control, the conflict itself might not overturn the fundamentals of the U.S. stock market. JPMorgan’s trading desk even sees the pullback as a buying opportunity.
Some are more optimistic: if Iran were to install a pro-Western government and ramp up oil output, that would be a pleasant surprise.

Ultimately, everyone is watching the same variable: how long will the Strait of Hormuz be closed?
A few days, it’s just a pulse in oil prices—wait it out.
A few weeks, it’s trouble—summer gasoline demand, sticky core inflation, tariff aftereffects, all stacking up, enough to keep the Fed’s tightening policies locked in until next year.
For crypto markets, this means beyond on-chain data, geopolitical candlestick patterns also need attention. Bitcoin’s rally today is because money is seeking a safe haven. But if Yellen and Dimon are right—that inflation isn’t going away easily, and rates won’t fall quickly—then this risk-averse rally might just be a longer, tougher “midterm break.”