Are Energy Prices Going Down? Trump's 12-Month Promise vs. Current Reality

When Donald Trump campaigned in August 2024, he made a striking pledge to American voters: energy prices would be cut in half within his first year back in office. “You will never have had energy so low as you will under a certain gentleman known as Donald J. Trump,” he declared at a North Carolina rally. Now, nearly 20 months later, the data tells a different story about whether energy prices are going down across the U.S. economy.

Gasoline Prices Show Limited Gains

If there’s one bright spot in the energy pricing landscape, it’s gasoline. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), pump prices have declined approximately 6% over the 12-month period through August 2025. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that the national average for gasoline hovered around $3.05 per gallon by October 2025. While these numbers represent some relief at the pump compared to earlier periods, they fall dramatically short of Trump’s ambitious 50% reduction target.

The modest improvement in gasoline markets reflects broader energy commodity dynamics rather than specific policy achievements. Natural gas prices, which generate roughly 40% of America’s electricity supply, actually surged 37% during the same timeframe—a significant headwind that offsets any consumer benefits from lower pump prices.

Electricity Costs Are Moving in the Wrong Direction

The picture becomes considerably bleaker when examining residential electricity prices, where energy prices are decidedly not going down. Data from the EIA reveals that retail electricity rates have been climbing since 2022 and show no signs of reversing through 2026.

As of August 2025, residential electricity prices jumped 6.2% compared to the previous 12 months, according to BLS data. The Federal Reserve documented that average household energy costs reached $280.91 in August 2025, up from $261.57 the year prior—representing a 7.4% increase. Geographic variation tells an even more troubling story: Maine, New Jersey, and the District of Columbia experienced particularly sharp residential electricity price spikes. Only Nevada and Rhode Island bucked the trend with slight declines in power rates.

Why Energy Prices Are Rising, Not Falling

Multiple structural forces are driving electricity costs upward, contradicting the administration’s assurances that energy prices are going down. A critical factor emerged from a late-2024 analysis by the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory: artificial intelligence and data center expansion are reshaping electricity demand.

The research found that data center energy consumption has tripled over the past decade. More alarming, projections indicate this consumption could double or triple again by 2028. Data centers accounted for just 4.4% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2023, but Berkeley Lab forecasts this share could climb to between 6.7% and 12% within three years. This explosive growth in computing infrastructure is one primary reason retail electricity prices for residential customers will likely continue rising throughout Trump’s second term.

Beyond AI-driven demand, aging grid infrastructure amplifies costs. Transmission and distribution facilities dating back to the 1960s require increasingly expensive maintenance and upgrades. States like California face particularly hefty expenses due to wildfire risks demanding enhanced safety infrastructure investments.

Administration Energy Policies May Be Backfiring

Paradoxically, the Trump administration’s own energy initiatives appear to be exacerbating the very affordability crisis it promised to solve. The administration’s tax policy eliminated key incentives for wind, solar, and renewable energy development, according to White House documentation.

The White House additionally halted construction on a nearly completed Rhode Island offshore wind project through the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), with Trump characterizing wind power as detrimental to the nation. Simultaneously, the administration has forced aging coal plants to remain operational, citing electricity security concerns. When the Department of Energy mandated that Michigan’s 60-year-old J.H. Campbell coal facility continue operating, state officials warned consumers would bear substantial additional costs.

These policy decisions stand in tension with the stated goal of reducing energy prices. By constraining renewable capacity expansion while propping up aging fossil fuel generation, the administration is inadvertently supporting factors that keep electricity costs elevated rather than directing them downward.

The Bottom Line on Energy Prices

The evidence through early 2026 indicates that energy prices are not going down as promised—at least not across the board. While gasoline has provided modest relief, electricity costs continue climbing due to structural demand pressures and policy decisions. The ambitious pledge to halve energy costs within 12 months remains unfulfilled, with the initial deadline now passed and no indication of dramatic reversals ahead.