Analyst: If the US-Iran conflict persists for months, debt expansion could benefit Bitcoin

Gate News reports that on March 9, macro strategist Mark Connors stated that if the conflict between the United States and Iran persists for several months, the increased fiscal spending, debt expansion, and falling interest rates brought by war could create a favorable environment for Bitcoin. His analysis indicates that wars typically require financing through the issuance of more government bonds, which increases the supply of U.S. dollars in the financial system, thereby weakening the value of existing currencies and benefiting non-dollar assets like Bitcoin. Data shows that since mid-2025, the annualized growth rate of U.S. federal debt has been about 14%. If this trend continues, the debt scale could continue to grow by approximately 15% year-over-year. Connors believes that this ongoing debt expansion is essentially a form of “currency dilution,” which historically tends to favor Bitcoin’s performance. Since the U.S. first launched strikes against Iran, Bitcoin’s price has risen by about 3.6%. He further pointed out that as U.S. government debt increases and reliance on short-term Treasury financing grows, policymakers may be more inclined to lower interest rates in the future to reduce interest burdens. In an environment of “declining interest rates + ongoing debt expansion,” liquidity generally improves, which has historically been a macro backdrop conducive to strong Bitcoin performance.